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Russian army prepares new attacks on Avdiivka despite heavy losses - ISW

2 November, 2023 Thursday
09:42

Invading Russian forces are likely preparing for another wave of attacks near Avdiivka, Donetsk region, despite their heavy losses

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This is reported by the Institute for the Study of War.

A Russian propagandist with close ties to the Kremlin claims that the Russian troops near Avdiivka have significantly slowed down the pace of ground attacks in favor of powerful indirect fire on Ukrainian frontline positions and near the rear areas.

"Russian forces may be conducting an interdiction campaign against Ukrainian assets in the Avdiivka area, but this heavy fire is more likely air and artillery preparation for the battlefield ahead of another wave of Russian assaults," ISW noted. 

The Russians are likely preparing to move to infantry-led frontal attacks after heavy artillery training to compensate for heavy losses of equipment in Avdiivka in October.

The open-source geolocation project GeoConfirmed used commercially available satellite imagery to verify that Russian forces have suffered at least 197 damaged and destroyed vehicles since October 9, losing 99 vehicles in the first wave of attacks from October 9-13, 94 vehicles in the second wave from October 14-23, and four confirmed and 18 potentially lost vehicles from October 24-31.

  • ISW analysts write that the Defense Forces are making progress near Bakhmut and Robotyne and are holding the line near Avdiivka, where the Russian army is conducting ineffective "meat" assaults.
  • Russian troops are trying to encircle Avdiivka in the Donetsk region and are using aviation to do so. In return, the Defense Forces inflict significant losses on the enemy, killing 680 soldiers per day.
  • The Russian troops have already changed their tactics twice to attack Avdiivka, but still suffer huge losses. At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces' counteroffensive has narrowed to two footholds in southern Ukraine, and a gap in the air defense system has emerged again in Crimea.
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