Espreso. Global
OPINION

Three factors for Ukraine’s victory

2 June, 2024 Sunday
16:54

One important question is how we define our victory. Is it about reclaiming our 1991 borders? The 2022 line? Or the current front line? Here is my answer

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Our victory consists of 3 components:

  • Preservation of the state
  • Security
  • Size of the territory

The most important component of our victory is the preservation of our state. Achieving this is a monumental historical accomplishment that generations before us couldn't realize. No matter how the war ends, maintaining our state will mark our victory and Putin's defeat.

Some might say that we've existed as a state for 30 years before the war. Yes and no. Formally, we were a state on the map, but in reality, we didn't fully exist. A state truly exists when an American, European, or Japanese person can identify it and say a few words about it. The existence of the state in the Western consciousness, even as an ally, is a statement for the ages to come.

Why is preserving the state so important? Israel has been striving for a state for thousands of years. Today it has only 20,000 square kilometers — 30 times smaller than Ukraine. Yet, the mere fact of Israel’s existence is a powerful geopolitical factor. Finland lost significant territories, but preserving their state allowed them to become one of the countries with the highest living standards in the world. Korea has been divided for over 70 years, yet South Korea has emerged as a stronghold for the West in Asia and a global leader in technology.

The second component of victory is security. Even if we take back Kuban or Belgorod, our existence isn't guaranteed as long as Russians are at war. There are several ways to achieve security.

The first is to defeat the enemy so that they can no longer continue to fight and harbor such plans. This seems unlikely due to various factors, many of which are beyond our control.

The second is to build up our military capabilities to the point where the enemy wouldn't dare think about attacking. This is also a challenging scenario, as we've seen that even powerful European nations struggle to maintain strong armies.

The third, and most promising, is to form alliances with other nations that guarantee our security and protection. While joining NATO might be a long shot, strong bilateral alliances can be just as effective. For example, South Korea isn't a NATO member, yet it maintains strong security through its alliances.

The third component is our territory and historical lands. No state today has the same borders it had throughout its history. Boundaries are always changing, so they shouldn't be seen as fixed. After Putin's era, we might be able to reclaim more than the 1991 borders, or maybe not. But as long as we have our state, we'll always have the chance to expand our territory.

Source

About the author. Victor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst and publicist

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.

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