South Korea may step up support for Ukraine amid North Korean troop deployment to Russia — ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shared its analysis.

“South Korea signaled possible readiness to increase support for Ukraine amid continued Ukrainian intelligence on the deployment of North Korean forces near the Russian border with Ukraine,” the report says.

On November 1, South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul stated that the country is considering “all possible scenarios” in response to questions about potentially supplying weapons to Ukraine following the deployment of North Korean troops in Russia.

According to him, South Korea will monitor the deployment of North Korean troops in Russia and the benefits that the DPRK receives from Russia to determine a course of action.

Military cooperation between Russia and North Korea

On October 4, the Kyiv Post reported that 20 soldiers were killed in a missile strike on occupied Donetsk, including six North Korean military personnel advising the Russian army.

The South Korean Defense Minister warned on October 8 that North Korea may deploy troops to Ukraine in support of Russia.

At an October 17 press conference in Brussels, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed Russia's plan to train 10,000 North Korean soldiers for combat in Ukraine.

Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Military Intelligence, later reported that 11,000 North Korean infantrymen are training in eastern Russia, preparing for deployment to Ukraine. He added that the first unit of 2,600 soldiers is en route to Kursk, where Ukraine has established a stronghold.

Ukraine has since shared intelligence with NATO about North Korea’s military involvement and requested data from alliance members.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that the participation of the North Korean military in the war against Ukraine on the side of Russia would mean a “significant escalation.” 

Later, it was reported that South Korea was considering providing Ukraine with military and intelligence assistance in response to North Korea's sending its military to fight on the side of Russia.

The Defense Intelligence of Ukraine reported that on October 23, the North Korean military was spotted in the Kursk region.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that according to intelligence, the first North Korean military would be used by Russia in combat zones on October 27-28.

On October 25, South Korea's intelligence agency announced that North Korea plans to send a second batch of its military personnel to Russia, totaling up to 10,000 people.

On October 28, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed the presence of North Korea's military in Russia’s Kursk region, noting that this is “a major escalation in DPRK’s ongoing role in Russia’s illegal war.” 

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russia was already using DPRK military personnel on the territory of Ukraine and that up to 12,000 troops could be deployed to Russian training grounds from the DPRK.

On October 31, reports stated that North Korea had dispatched three of its generals to Russia, including the DPRK's deputy chief of general staff, who also serves as the head of the country's main intelligence bureau.

On the same day, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that, according to recent reports, up to 8,000 DPRK troops had been deployed to Russia’s Kursk region.

On November 1, President Zelensky announced that the first thousand North Korean soldiers were already positioned near the Ukrainian border. Additionally, Ukraine's intelligence indicated that in the last week of October, Russia had relocated over 7,000 North Korean army soldiers from its territory to areas close to Ukraine.