Espreso. Global

Remake of surrender in Istanbul. Putin, Lukashenko are pushing Ukraine to defeat

12 April, 2024 Friday

When Putin isn't doing well on the battlefield, it's time to pull out a remake of the Istanbul agreements, Lukashenko, and appeal to the indecisive Western world — here I am ready for negotiations, assign the new occupied territories to Russia


The timing of Russia's new proposal to freeze the current front line is not accidental. The strikes on the Zmiiv and Trypillia thermal power plants promise a difficult winter with bonfires and ski suits for Kharkiv and Kyiv residents. We are really short of air defense missiles. And the US Congress's games of not providing military aid have seriously pissed off our main American partners, the UK and Japan.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida spoke so harshly in Congress that he made it very clear that delaying assistance to Ukraine would sink the United States as a global hegemony. And it will also open the way to new wars of aggression by China in East Asia. It is noteworthy that American congressmen from both parties were grilled by a man from the people whose lion's share of the population died during the dropping of the atomic bomb on Hiroshima.

“While the Americans were listening to perhaps the first serious conversation with their closest allies, Putin was organizing a European-level PSYOP.”

There is a liberal and Russian media called Novaya Gazeta - Europe. There was an article in it that allegedly, with the assistance of Turkish leader Erdogan, there is a draft of a new peace plan.

The essence of this plan is for our Western partners to continue to delay the transfer of F-16s, air defense systems, and artillery shells. And they were waiting to see whether the Ukrainian side would accept this "peace" or not.

“Ukraine was offered to freeze everything as it is. To record a promise of non-alignment. And to wait until 2040, and only then hold referendums in the occupied territories and those controlled by Ukraine, saying that people should choose what they want and how they want it.”

We can only imagine what the army, FSB officers and their families who have come to occupied Mariupol and Berdyansk will say. Of course, they will choose to live as part of Russia.

What was the only thing you liked about these outlines? There are no longer any demands to limit the army, which was the basis of the Istanbul talks. And the clauses on denazification and demilitarization have disappeared somewhere. However, this is not because the Russians have become kinder — these are too complicated terms for the Russians, so propagandists have long suggested that they simply kill us indiscriminately. 

Why now?

I'll quote Anton Pavlushko, military analyst at InformNapalm:

"Just imagine that the United States had somehow voted for military aid. Europe gradually began to buy shells. Ukraine was given F-16s, gradually increasing the number of long-range missiles. They didn't give us Taurus, but somehow we managed to survive without them. And so the work on Russian aviation begins. Gradually, air defense is being knocked out, warehouses are being knocked out, supply routes are having problems, and the Russians continue to lose a lot of equipment to drones of various levels. Once a month, a Russian ship is sunk. Yes, Ukraine's energy supply is being cut off — all of it. But something is constantly burning in Russia, too. Less, but still burning. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are no longer moving forward, but the Russians cannot take Kramatorsk either. What's next? And we haven't even considered the options when the Ukrainian Armed Forces somehow reach the Azov Sea or even reach the borders of Crimea - I don't know how much equipment the Russians will have left, and what will happen to them if they are targeted for six months by F-16s, missiles and artillery purchased with US money, etc.

“These are negotiations from a completely different position - not one where Russia has a temporary advantage only because Ukraine lacks shells, has depleted air defense and needs a rotation at the front.”

Why did Turkey unwittingly, but still become an accomplice in such a game?

Just a week ago, there were local elections in Turkey, where the opposition, not Erdogan's party, won a significant victory. So the leader needs to regain the attention of the electorate, and playing the card of the number one peacemaker in the region is exactly what he needs.

Furthermore, we should not underestimate the fact that for a year now, the work of professional Ukrainian experts with Turkey has been limited. After all, Bankova believes that it has a special relationship with Erdogan, and therefore, why do we need those roundtables and governmental commissions with the participation of people who know Turkey not by Marmaris and all-inclusive hotels?

As soon as a small liberal Russian publication in Europe published a Kremlin piece, the "sweet couple" of our time, Putin and Lukashenko, appeared on the air.

“They both want to get away with the bloody campaign they have organized on the territory of Ukraine and, of course, to keep the trade going. I think only a blind person would not have noticed that France, which is increasingly defending Ukraine's interests, has started buying more Belarusian gas. Yes, it is "Belarusian" gas.”

The two grandfathers told how the "other side" had backed itself into a corner by refusing the Istanbul talks in the "hope of defeating Russia on the battlefield.”

The lie was spread that Moscow was forced to respond to the attacks on Russian energy facilities, although it allegedly refrained from doing so during the winter. In this way, Putin wants to make himself look human, although the reason for these strikes is completely different — to make cities uninhabitable. And to push another large wave of refugees to Europe, fleeing from unsanitary conditions and diseases in the hot summer.

Then there are the statements that Russia could attack the West — nonsense. This is a lullaby for those leaders who are still looking for a dialog with Putin. And they believe in compromises at the expense of Ukraine. New champions of the new time.

And the key point. That if Switzerland wants a conference on Ukraine without Moscow and Minsk, they can only agree on escalation. They say we are not invited there, they say we refuse to negotiate. At the same time, they say that nothing can be resolved without us. Once again, I want to emphasize that we are in favor. That is, Putin wants to impose his own "peace formula" in Switzerland. He wants to break everyone into a points-based victory.

What should we make of these plans? 

Such proposals are a trap for Ukraine, no matter how tired and exhausted Ukrainians feel. Russia does not need a sustainable peace at this point in the war. Putin needs a pause to breathe and work on his mistakes. And increasing the foothold for the offensive through Donbas and the South will allow him to advance further into Ukraine. And only then can the occupied Ukrainian territory itself be used as a springboard for a further front with the West.

Such plans and meetings with Lukashenko are a deceptive maneuver for Trumpists, for lovers of Russia, for merchants with Russian money. Because such peace projects give the illusion of pink ponies and unicorns and distract European governments from seeking additional air defense systems for Ukraine.

Most governments and their leaders would like to return to the world that existed before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But we know this price from the experience of 2014. Therefore, there will be no “normalcy”.  And attempts to solve personal problems at the expense of new Sudetenland, where the left bank of the Kherson region will play the role of a new state, will only lead to the day when French and British metrosexuals will be mixing dirt in the forests near Krakow.

Hitler was not satisfied with Czechoslovakia. Putin is preparing for more.

Especially for Espreso.

About the author: Maryna Danyliuk-Yarmolaieva, journalist.

The editors don’t always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.

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