Espreso. Global
OPINION

Parade of peace treaties. What's next?

6 July, 2024 Saturday
15:38

In recent days, we have been bombarded with various peace plans that do not physically exist, but which, unfortunately, penetrate the subconscious of millions of Ukrainians. What are these plans?

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1. Talking about negotiations is, among other things, part of negotiating. We just have to always keep this in mind.

2. There are no specific peace plans, especially not from Russia. All we see is an attempt to create a certain information backdrop in different parts of the world. Unfortunately, they are succeeding in Ukraine.

3. Both Washington (to a lesser extent) and Beijing view our war as a proxy conflict between the West and the Global South. This is our main problem.

4. Peace talks currently depend on four perspectives: Washington, Beijing, Kyiv, and Moscow. Unfortunately, the EU's perspective is not yet present, but it may become crucial.

5. Moscow believes that over the next six months, it can turn the tide in its favor and replicate what happened at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, when Ukraine went seven months without receiving weapons.

The Kremlin understands that its primary objective now is to compel the West to propose a peace plan that won't fully satisfy Kyiv, portraying Ukraine as incapable of negotiating.

6. Washington is preoccupied with its own issues, and the Ukrainian matter has receded into the background. The only thing we can accurately predict now is that if Trump wins, there will be an attempt to propose a relatively simple solution, which might include a partial lifting of sanctions against Russia in exchange for a "cooling" of Russia's relations with China. Everything we've observed from Russia's actions in North Korea and its activities in Africa suggests that Putin is preparing for such a proposal. This is a threatening scenario for us, and the main challenge, in my opinion, is to strenuously engage with the entire Republican Party and their supporters. This notion needs to become toxic.

7. China aims to detach the EU from the United States, simplifying Beijing's motivation. The only factor that could compel Beijing to exert substantial pressure on Moscow is the risk of losing EU markets.

Source

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.

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