On half-summer military results of Russia-Ukraine war

1. The main direction of attack

As I said, the main task for the Russians remains the capture of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. All other directions can only be a diversionary maneuver. I am convinced that one of the basic scenarios for the end of the war in the minds of the Russians looks like the capture of these regions, after which they can declare that the goals of the "sprecial military operation" have been achieved and go on the defensive, offering everyone to recognize “reality” in the name of peace.

2. The Kharkiv failure

When the Russian offensive on Kharkiv was being planned, I said that it would be a serious strategic miscalculation. And so it was. Not having enough forces to break through, they are stuck fighting for towns and villages that have no value to them. The only reason why they are now forced to put significant forces there is because of local defeat. They can't afford to retreat again so that Ukraine can declare its success. So they pay for it in full, and do not reinforce the main directions with this meat.

3. Burned reserves

Remember, we were frightened by reserves of 300,000 that would launch a major offensive. Not 300,000, but at least 150,000 have been in action since April. In fact, the large offensive operation has turned into a sluggish crawl. The dispersal of forces and their grinding against Ukraine's defense leveled this colossal figure that Ukraine was frightened by. Meanwhile, Moscow raised the one-time fee for the contract for the Joint Forces Operation to 20,000 dollars. What does this mean? That's right, someone has problems with recruitment. I, like most other experts, believe that in October Putin will be forced to mobilize, maybe even earlier. This is neither good nor bad. It may finally provoke difficulties in Russia, or it may not.

Challenges for Ukraine

1. Russia is advancing where there is poor management and enormous exhaustion. This can only be changed with adequate commanders and fresh reserves.
2. Internal problems are beginning to grow and threaten Ukraine no less than Putin. The collapsed state administration, incompetence, lack of a clear new program for a long-term positional war, and communication disaster are all hitting Ukraine as hard as Russian missiles.
3. Patience is now more important than shells.

For now, I stand by my prediction that everything is headed for a freeze.

Source

About the author. Victor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst and publicist

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