Kurakhove pocket: Ukrainian Armed Forces hold ground under extreme conditions. Serhiy Zgurets' column

Balance of power on the front

The British defense think tank RUSI (Royal United Services Institute) has released a new report analyzing the current state of the war. This report will be referenced in future discussions, but for now, let’s highlight a few critical points.

According to their calculations, Ukrainian Armed Forces units are outnumbered by Russian operational groups at varying ratios — between 1:2 and 1:6 — in favor of Russian forces due to their superiority in infantry. The largest concentration of Russian troops — 230,000 out of 570,000 — is deployed in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Situation at the front

Despite being outnumbered, Ukrainian units continue to hold their ground and launch counteroffensives. This is evident in the Kursk region, Velyka Novosilka, and counterattacks near Pokrovsk, where Russian forces are being forced to adjust their plans and pull in reinforcements. There are also counterattacks near Siversk, but some areas remain highly challenging, with the situation deteriorating, which is visible on the map.

Novopavlivka direction

Ukrainian brigades are holding their positions under extremely difficult, if not critical, conditions in what is now known as the Kurakhove pocket. This area, previously referred to as the Kurakhove direction, runs along the highway from Dachne to Zaporizhzhia.

On February 17, we discussed this sector, which saw Russian counterattacks over the weekend, as well as counterattacks from Ukrainian forces. Reliable sources confirm that Russian troops are gaining ground in Ulakly.

Looking at the map, Ulakly sits directly on the road between Dachne and Zaporizhzhia. Russian forces are digging in, creating major obstacles in this sector. Meanwhile, they are also launching counterattacks near Kostiantynopil, just west of Ulakly. Heavy fighting is ongoing as Russian troops push toward the highway.

In this region, including Andriivka to the north of the road, Russian forces currently hold an advantage in manpower, even though Ukraine has deployed an additional brigade for reinforcement. So far, breaking this advantage has proven difficult. This sector remains one of the most challenging, and at some point, a decision may have to be made regarding a tactical withdrawal.

Preliminary assessments suggest that Russian forces aim to straighten the front line, which would free up units for redeployment — potentially strengthening their offensive toward Toretsk and Kostiantynivka. However, these are only theoretical projections.

Reality often defies forecasts. Ukrainian brigades are holding the line across a 10 km stretch from Dachne to Kostiantynopil. The narrowest section — just 2 km between Andriivka and Kostiantynopil — poses extreme challenges for defense. In such conditions, much depends on the determination of Ukraine's troops, the use of drones, and artillery support.

It’s worth mentioning that at the Munich Conference, Czech President Petr Pavel noted that Ukraine received over a million rounds of ammunition last year through the “Czech Initiative.”

Meanwhile, Rheinmetall recently announced that a 155 mm ammunition plant will finally be built in Ukraine by 2026. Germany continues supplying ammunition, with a new package including 50,000 additional rounds.

The balance of artillery fire between Russia and Ukraine is slowly evening out. Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi stated that the ratio has now improved to 1:2, a significant shift from the previous 1:10 disparity in favor of Russian forces.

Cooperation between the Ukrainian and European defense industries

Meanwhile, shares of German, British, and other European defense companies are rising significantly. With Europe committing to serious investments in its defense industry, these companies stand to gain major orders and expand their capacity for producing various weapons. This, in turn, opens up opportunities for Ukraine, as several Ukrainian companies maintain strong ties with foreign arms manufacturers.

The key question is: how can Ukraine take advantage of the fact that many European companies are now ramping up the production of new weapons?

Let’s bring in Valeriy Borovyk, Chairman of the Board of the New Energy of Ukraine Alliance Group. Even before the full-scale war, he was actively collaborating with European firms in the civil space sector. Now, his company is also working closely with foreign arms manufacturers. The experience gained by the New Energy of Ukraine Alliance could be invaluable for other Ukrainian defense firms.

We know that the Alliance is developing new systems for the Ukrainian Armed Forces — not just aerial drones but also electronic warfare equipment and underwater drone systems.

Borovyk discussed the company’s cooperation with the German defense firm Diehl Defense. He noted that last year, they completed the delivery of 16 air defense systems designed to detect and neutralize drones before they reach their targets. Ukrainian specialists have already been trained and are using these systems. The supply of advanced robotic complexes was initially planned for 2024, but due to budget constraints, the deal was delayed. Now, they are pushing to make it happen this year. Ukraine has also worked on supply logistics and ways to integrate its manufacturers into cooperation with German partners. However, Diehl Defense is currently prioritizing the delivery of an IRIS-T air defense system. The New Energy of Ukraine Alliance is actively involved in securing various materials from Diehl Defense.

Despite these efforts, Borovyk pointed out that nothing is happening in a systematic way — his company works with foreign manufacturers on a case-by-case basis. Previously, he had proposed to the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff the creation of a research and combat unit that would bring together engineers with firsthand experience using different weapons. With access to the front lines, these specialists could analyze how weapons perform in combat, refine the technology, and work alongside engineers from foreign defense firms to improve military equipment. Several foreign manufacturers signed a letter supporting this idea, but, as Borovyk put it, “it’s still sitting there.” Without this kind of collaboration, technological progress will be painfully slow.

Borovyk also spoke about the robotic underwater systems his Alliance is developing. These are currently being tested and fine-tuned, with the next stage focusing on range tests for an underwater kamikaze drone. Work is ongoing to enhance and lower the cost of production. While it’s too soon to make predictions, we can expect to see some prototypes by summer. It’s a challenging task — his company is essentially building a submarine from scratch.

To sum up Borovyk’s points, this is a highly complex technological field that not every country can master. But his company is putting in tremendous effort to ensure that the Ukrainian Armed Forces rely on technology rather than sheer manpower. Let’s hope they succeed.