Espreso. Global

Putin's new manipulations, aid from Germany, deal with US. Weekly military results by Serhiy Zgurets

15 June, 2024 Saturday

Germany will provide Ukraine with a new military aid package, including the most necessary weapons and ammunition for the Armed Forces, namely 20 Marder infantry fighting vehicles and 10 Leopard 1 tanks, which have proven themselves on the battlefield


The arms package also includes 21,000 155-millimeter ammunition for artillery systems. Germany is also donating armored engineering vehicles, small arms, including sniper rifles and electronic warfare equipment. Most importantly, air defense equipment is being transferred. 

So far, the third announced Patriot battery is not included in this package, but the transfer of IRIS-T SLM anti-aircraft missile systems has been declared. This is a medium-range air defense system that can shoot down an enemy target up to 40 kilometers. The second air defense system is of shorter range, capable of shooting down targets up to 12 km. In total, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have four IRIS-T SLM medium-range systems and two IRIS-T SLS systems. 

The package also includes three highly mobile HIMARS artillery systems. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will now have about 40 HIMARS launchers in service, which is essential for effective combat operations.

Security agreement with the United States

Ukraine and the United States signed a new security agreement at the G7 summit. In fact, Ukraine has already signed 17 such agreements with all G7 members. As for the agreement with the United States, President Zelenskyy considers this document a historic agreement. According to him, this is the most important event in the relations between Ukraine and the United States. At the same time, the United States emphasizes in this agreement that Ukraine's future is indeed in NATO, but only when the Allies agree and certain terms are met. The agreement stipulates that security commitments are aimed at ensuring that Ukraine wins the current war, so that they provide conditions for deterring future Russian aggression, if there will be any. 

US policy is aimed at helping Ukraine maintain a robust defense and defense capability. Two annexes are important there, which define the areas of cooperation between Ukraine and the United States in the military sphere, when it comes to the development of the Armed Forces and the defense industry. The military component describes all the components that relate to all the domains: air, sea, space, and cyber, where Ukraine's capabilities are supposed to be built up. 

For the first time, it is mentioned that the development of the air defense system should include not only tactical but also strategic components. This means that behind the scenes, negotiations are probably underway to significantly strengthen Ukraine's air defense system not only with Patriot, but also with more powerful advanced systems in the future. 

Fighter squadrons for Ukraine

Ukraine will receive F-16 squadrons. In fact, it is recognized that the United States will also be transferring F-16s. However, it is also said that fourth-generation aircraft may be transferred, not necessarily F-16s. It can be f-15 and f-18. That is, the arsenal of aircraft that can be transferred to Ukraine in the future is large.

Components aimed at strengthening Ukraine's firepower will be strengthened, including the naval component, communication and control systems. In other words, everything that ensures the efficiency of the Armed Forces and their development in the future. The second component of the agreement with the United States is the development of the defense industry. It involves a number of areas that should create a substantial basis for expanding cooperation between Ukrainian and American manufacturers. The agreement emphasizes many things that Ukraine must do, including completing the reform of the Ukrainian defense industry, ensuring transparency in procurement, and effective management of the State Defense Industry. 

Putin's statement on the ceasefire

On the eve of the Ukrainian Peace Summit, Putin announced the terms of the ceasefire. Valentyn Badrak, a military expert and director of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, said: "Putin sees that the groups' potential to put pressure on the Ukrainian army and further advance is already at its limit. Therefore, it would be good for him to get a break in general. Of course, he is making an offer that cannot be accepted. He says strange things, talks about orders with Ukraine, with Europe. Putin probably lives by some other value categories, because he believes that a criminal regime can commit many crimes, continue them, kill people, destroy cities, and not bear any responsibility for it. He would probably like to end it all in such a way that he would sit at the same table with them as an equal."

Putin has a perverse vision of how the world can react. The fact that Russia was not invited to the Peace Summit is an indication that the West will not sit down at the same negotiating table with a criminal regime, Badrak says. If you look even further, Putin doesn't really want anything. He wants to demonstrate that Russia is a "peace-loving country." This was addressed to two audiences - Russians and Trump. To the latter, because he says he needs to win the election and end this war, to make "peace."

"This is all really about nothing. Putin does not want to end the war. If anyone doesn't believe me, let them look at the map that Medvedev showed two days ago, where Ukraine is annexed to Russia. Russia, as it exists, will be the enemy, and it will destroy Ukraine until it is completely destroyed. If it captures Ukraine, or if some politician gets it in the political sense, who will come to a "reconciliation", the time will come when many millions of Ukrainians will be killed in concentration camps, this is all absolutely clear. This is the logic not only of Putin, but of this entire regime. We have only one way to resist - to put the army in the very center of the nation's existence, as Israel once did, to win our right to be an invincible nation, to stay on the map, on the map of the world as an independent sovereign state. The war actually provided such a chance," the military expert noted.

The security agreements and the fact that we are now in June of this year are actually steps towards the realization of this chance. After all, Ukraine has been offered a huge restructuring of its army and country. If it copes with this, it will be able to be part of the Euro-Atlantic space.

The agreements that have been signed with various countries should be assessed as a window of opportunity, not as guarantees, Badrak says: "The only guarantee we can provide for ourselves is to become a strong state in the military sense. Of course, Russia is annoyed by this, because it has reacted by saying that this is not a deal that can be canceled. It's not clear how much military-technical cooperation the agreement with the United States will give us, but I think it can be filled depending on how Ukraine behaves. Very revolutionary things are happening. For example, the other day we successfully used an American combat laser. For Ukraine, this is a signal that a very large part of the military reorganization should be based on joint developments, as Israel did."

Ukraine needs to promote the principles and move in this direction, in particular, we are talking about electromagnetic, laser, and microwave weapons. 

"The next point is the automation and robotization of the army. We have already seen examples where we created "gray zones" in some areas where equipment could not move. Now there are drones with a range of 20 kilometers that drive away equipment at night. FPV drones, if used massively and skillfully, create these "gray zones" for people, enemy infantry, and attack aircraft. This is what is needed on the battlefield. In addition, we need powerful weapons - a strategic military component, an air and missile defense component, when the weapon carriers will be destroyed many kilometers before our border," Badrak added.

"Ukrainian sky will be protected"

According to him, Ukraine has done a lot on its own and there is a lot in foreign experience. Since December 2023, the troops have been rapidly deployed with ground robotic systems. Many believe that, following FPV drones and the air component in general, ground drones will be the most proactive, in the sense that they will become the basis of strike components on the battlefield, which is very important. Of course, if we get modern aircraft and air and missile defense systems, it will mean that not only any ballistic missiles will have no prospects on Ukrainian territory. Moreover, Russia is already demonstrating degradation. If, for example, Patriot is able to shoot down a Kinzhal or a Zircon, they do not confirm their claimed characteristics and have no prospects. The United States, Israel and some other countries, such as South Korea, already have more powerful systems than Patriot. The day will come when Ukrainian skies will be protected, and equipment and personnel will have no prospects on the battlefield. Yes, we don't know when that day will actually come, but in the context of Putin's proposals, we can assume that he is showing weakness. This is how his proposal can be viewed from a psychological perspective. He needs some time to fulfill the plan they outlined during the "epoch-making" board in December 2022. Russians are very far behind in terms of technology. It is in technology that Ukraine's window of opportunity and potential lies.

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