Russia has never been democratic – and never will be

The Ministry of Defense of Estonia has published a report on the myths and lessons of the Russian war in Ukraine. This is excellent material from partners who understand our pain and are aware of all the risks no less than the Ukrainians. Estonians, as can be seen from the text, want to keep other partners in good shape so that there are no ephemeral expectations of victory without full-fledged investments.

Russia is still here

• Russia's objective is to reshape the global order, a goal openly discussed by Putin over the past 15 years. But this is not solely Putin's war. The Russian government has been preparing for conflict for two decades, and even after Putin leaves, the country's internal situation is unlikely to change significantly due to widespread support for such events. Russia has never been democratic and never will be. Another authoritarian regime is likely to succeed Putin. There was a brief period when democratic transformations were attempted in Russia, but they resulted in utter chaos. Consequently, lessons were learned, they drew conclusions that were not acceptable to us. The aggression against Ukraine stems from these conclusions. There is minimal opposition to the war among Russians, both domestically and internationally. Even self-proclaimed liberals tend to focus more on military defeats and mistakes rather than questioning the nature of the conflict. While it is true that around 300,000 Russians have left the country to avoid mobilization, this number is relatively small considering the total population of 145 million. And their decision to leave primarily stems from concerns about personal safety rather than a rejection of the aggression itself.

“Another authoritarian regime is likely to succeed Putin. There was a brief period when democratic transformations were attempted in Russia, but they resulted in utter chaos. Consequently, lessons were learned, they drew conclusions that were not acceptable to us”

Even if Putin were stopped, the next man in line would not be any different, because Russia is not any different.

• Russia currently occupies 18% of Ukrainian territory, which is more than twice the size of Estonia and larger than the combined territories of 30 European countries. The liberation of the Kharkiv region and Kherson represents less than 1% of Ukraine's total land. Therefore, it is crucial to ensure positive changes in the ongoing war. The long-term consequences of this conflict will be deeply painful. Russia lost tactically, but not yet strategically. As long as Ukraine's entire territory within internationally recognized borders remains under Russian control, the West will sustain a significant strategic loss. The frozen conflict is Russia's comfort zone. Especially considering their control over Belarus and its use as a training base, as well as their substantial influence over Georgia and its government. The cost of reconstructing Ukraine is already high, and it will continue to rise if the civil infrastructure remains unprotected.

“As long as Ukraine's entire territory within internationally recognized borders remains under Russian control, the West will sustain a significant strategic loss. The frozen conflict is Russia's comfort zone”

• Russia possesses a mobilization potential of 30 million men, but they have only utilized a mere 2% of it so far. On the other hand, Ukrainian military training conducted abroad is only covered at a rate of 10-20% when compared to Russian training. The Russians still have substantial stockpiles of weapons and ammunition. Data indicate significant reserves of tanks and other military equipment. 

Numerous data and conclusions reinforce a single crucial point: no time to rest.

Source

About the author. Olha Aivazovska, Global Network of Domestic Election Monitors  (GNDEM) Chairwoman

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.