Prigozhin is trying to increase Wagner PMC influence in Russia's war against Ukraine

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shared its usual report on Russia’s offensive campaign in Ukraine.

On December 22, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that Wagner group received a shipment of weapons from North Korea to strengthen Russian forces in Ukraine.

Kirby also said that Prigozhin spends more than USD 100 million a month to finance Wagner operations in Ukraine and that the PMC currently has 50,000 people in Ukraine, including 10,000 contractors and 40,000 convicts recruited in Russian prisons.

Prigozhin, in order to strengthen his influence, is probably trying to use his paramilitary structures to provide the Russian military with the capabilities they currently lack, the Institute says.

“North Korea’s reported shipment of weapons to the Russian military using the Wagner Group as an intermediary may suggest that Prigozhin is attempting to use his private military company to secure foreign sources of weapons that would be more difficult for the Russian Ministry of Defense to officially procure. Prigozhin is also likely committing a substantial amount of personnel and resources to the Wagner Group’s operations in the Bakhmut area in hopes of providing the Russian military with an operational success that has eluded the Russian Armed Forces in the Bakhmut area as well as the wider theater in Ukraine,” ISW report states.

ISW experts believe Prigozhin likely has political ambitions and is seeking to take advantage of the Kremlin's need for a more capable force to accumulate influence with the ultra-nationalist electorate he hopes to exploit.

“Prigozhin will likely continue to expand the Wagner Group’s outsized role in the war in Ukraine in pursuit of these political goals,” ISW concluded.

• On December 22, the media reported that North Korea last month supplied Russia with a batch of missiles and shells, paid for by the Wagner PMC. Such arms supplies are a direct violation of the UN Security Council resolution.
• However, the North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs denies reports that Pyongyang supplied weapons to Russia.