Poles should shoot down Russian helicopters without a word

The violation by Belarusian helicopters of Polish airspace, which Polish officials initially did not want to notice, and then, when a bunch of photographic evidence from Polish citizens was made public, were forced to admit, is, of course, no ordinary "incident".

It is worth recalling the joint "concert" of dictators Putin and Lukashenko, who told tales of the Wagner "walk" to Poland, the personal benefit of Putin, who suddenly remembered that Polish territories were "given to the Poles by Stalin", the movement of Prigozhin’s mercenaries to Belarus, and so on.

It is clear that all this is part of a special operation. So far, it is a psychological one. What are its goals and objectives?

It is clear that Putin is not planning to fight against NATO. No matter what his propagandists say. He has neither the resources nor the capabilities to do so, and he has no desire to do so either. But he understands perfectly well that NATO's support (even as limited as it is now) significantly affects the fundamental possibility of achieving the "goals of the special operation" in Ukraine.

“Putin does not want to fight with NATO, but he is eager to isolate Ukraine from NATO member states. It is also desirable to put NATO itself in a situation of crisis that could provoke uncertainty, instability and disintegration. For this purpose, Poland was chosen as a target, not for the first time, by the way, and a Lukashenko was chosen as a tool”

The scheme seems to be as follows. Constantly keep Poland in a state of "Russian" threat, reinforcing it with permanent provocations on the border. The "padding" in the form of the "Belarusian authorities" allows to minimise risks and make the dictator from Minsk the guilty one. If the situation develops in an undesirable way. Putin also shows himself to be a coward here, promising an "attack" on Poland by someone else's hands.

The logic here is simple. NATO constantly declares that it will not fight Russia. An attack on one NATO state should mean a reaction from all members. This means a war of all (including the United States) against Russia, which the United States itself does not want. So, we need to push them into a situation where the undesirable choice is close, and then offer them a choice: we reduce provocations, and you reduce support for Ukraine.

“Of course, the logic is not very good, but it fits into the Putin’s mentality. After all, even if it doesn't come to that, any demonstration of NATO's "weakness" in the context of protecting its members is already a trump card in the game played by the Kremlin.”

Unfortunately, the Poles have so far reacted weakly. We just need to understand that the only argument that works against the Kremlin's schizophrenics is the argument of force. Erdogan has already demonstrated this on numerous occasions, and people still listen to him even in the bunker. You shot down a Russian plane? That means you are a "serious guy". You can be dealt with.

The Poles should be determined to shoot down Belarusian planes, kill the militants who will enter from Belarus, kill them immediately and without talking. This will immediately stop any provocations. And there will be no attack on NATO. Russia will simply change the vector of its actions. Because in reality, they are more afraid of fighting NATO than even NATO itself.

Otherwise... No, there will be no war between Russia and the West, but there will be a very big crisis, the consequences of which will be unpredictable from a political point of view.

Source

About the author. Petro Oleshchuk, political scientist

The editors do not always share the views expressed by the authors of the blogs.