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OPINION

Why does Putin need North Korean soldiers?

15 October, 2024 Tuesday
11:59

Information about the possibility of North Korean soldiers intervening in the war has been widely circulated. This is a serious factor that changes a lot. But let's not jump to conclusions

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1. According to various sources, the DPRK army has about 1 million soldiers. Given that human resources are the biggest challenge for both Ukraine and Russia right now, this can seriously turn the tide. But we need to remember that the DPRK leadership is f**king paranoid and is preparing all resources to repel South Korea's aggression. They have already put their troops on alert twice in the last month. Paranoid people cannot afford to weaken their army, it is psychologically difficult.

2. The engineering troops of 3,000 to 5,000 North Koreans are already assisting Russia, likely deployed alongside missiles. It is probable that we are discussing the replenishment and rotation of these forces. However, the idea of replacing Russian rear units with North Korean troops to send them to the front is illogical, as Russian conscripts are assigned to rear units and will not be deployed to the front lines.

3. The appearance of the DPRK regular army at the front seriously changes the political situation around the war. In fact, this is the entry into the war of a new state. This will raise the question of changing Ukraine's support from its partners and their role in the war.

In general, I still have little faith in the possibility of the DPRK's regular army being involved, but even if it happens, I think there will be no catastrophe. First, I would not overestimate its combat capability. To understand: the DPRK's military budget is about $4 billion. With such a large army, this is just a miserable amount. This means that it is largely a sham army, and that, as is typical for dictatorships, it is a bunch of fakes on paper. Second, war has changed. Drones and new technologies are not what the Koreans were trained for. And retraining will take time. Third, it will definitely lead to a new response from Ukraine's partners.

There are few good things, of course, but one thing is certain - Putin is desperately looking for strength to continue the war, and therefore he is on the verge.

Source

About the author. Victor Andrusiv, political and public figure, analyst and publicist

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.

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