Kremlin's hysteria amidst Burgenstock

Putin was betting on Trump's victory, but in the war's protraction, he lost his key ally, China. Therefore, the Russian dictator is trying to deprive Ukraine of Western support.

A real trade war has broken out between the EU and China: The West is going to impose a huge duty (up to 40%) on Chinese electric cars, and Beijing is set to do the same with European food, including pork. This is only the beginning, and the unresolved "Ukrainian issue" is also preventing the two markets from resolving the conflict. Therefore, China is interested in limiting the timer of Russia's war against Ukraine. 

Beijing is trying to synchronize with Brussels by privately preparing the next peace summit in Saudi Arabia for the fall, but with the participation of China and Russia. European diplomats have insisted that the agenda of the Swiss summit be reduced from 10 issues to 3 "humanitarian" ones.

The recent summit can be summarized in two messages: The West spoke of Putin's crimes and the inadmissibility of freezing the war along the front line, while the Global South spoke of the expediency of engaging Russia in the next round of negotiations. A common denominator seems to have been found, and the forum may become a springboard for the next "peaceful" meeting of world leaders with the participation of China and Russia. 

Obviously, Beijing will now force Moscow to lower its desires to a level that will satisfy major world players and be acceptable to Ukraine (we are not talking about the 1991 borders at this point). The reality will be very different from Putin's geopolitical fantasies.

Now about the new strategy of the bunker man. Having failed to influence Western politicians, he is trying to reach out to their voters, the message is simple: "it is much easier to end the war than your rulers say." For Putin, this is his only chance to avoid Chinese "peacekeeping" pressure.

Announcing his "peace plan" last Friday, Putin offered the West to end the war in exchange for Ukraine's surrender of 4 regions and the long-awaited "demilitarization-denazification." This is a remake of the Istanbul agreements with increased territorial claims.

To make more noise, the "foreign intelligence" leaked its version of "Istanbul" to the Western media. It is interesting that the New York Times de facto published a fake document - the initial, March wanties of the Russians, but under the April date... Because even Putin showed another version of the final text at a press conference, where Davyd Arakhamia's hand made changes, including the number of personnel of the Armed Forces, weapons, etc. And it is a "coincidence" that the "independent" NYT published the Russian version of the Istanbul agreements immediately after the Russian dictator's speech on Friday. 

Now, more about the purpose of the campaign: apart from the prime ministers of Italy and Canada, most of the G7 leaders are in a precarious position.

British Prime Minister Sunak is less than 3 weeks away from elections after which his party is likely to lose power. President Macron called snap elections after his party lost the European Parliament elections to the far right. Chancellor Scholz and his Social Democrats also lost these elections, and Joe Biden's political history is not worth mentioning. In the fall, we should also expect the resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. 

The situation in the EU's national elections is no more optimistic, with the far right winning, and the nationalist idea standing on the side of Putin's "easy" peace. Putin's message adds fuel to this fire, hinting that all it takes is to put pressure on Ukraine and the G7 with the EU will forget about the problem for a long time.

Both Kyiv and Moscow are running out of time, trying to accelerate events in their favor. That is why the EU, and now Ukraine, are in such a hurry to find an acceptable formula for peace, as a different political reality may soon appear in the world.

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About the author. Orest Sohar, journalist, editor-in-chief of Obozrevatel

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.