Political exchange. Putin's chaos strategy

1. The exchange clearly fits into the electoral logic of the Democrats, and Putin played along. But the first mistake of our experts is that this is seen as a bet on Kamala Harris.

Putin is betting on chaos and quarrels. The Kremlin clearly calculated that this exchange would be an excuse for Trump to attack the White House. Let me repeat: Putin needs chaos and quarrels, and he has no favourable candidate.

2. Putin has become a "handshake person" again, despite Biden's statements that he has nothing to talk about with Putin. At the same time, the song "Russians don't abandon their own" was sung in Russia, which is beneficial to Putin. In other words, Putin has lost nothing at all. He has shown the West that he is ready to negotiate, but he has not shown any desire to change his "peaceful" ultimatum on Ukraine.

3. It is important to note that China, which is looking for its place in this geopolitical game, was not involved in all of this. The Kremlin has demonstrated to China that it can play political games on its own without intermediaries. Simply put, the Kremlin is once again (after flirting with the DPRK and attacking China's "positions" in Africa) showing Beijing its political independence. This is, in short, the favorite argument of many that Russia is a vassal of China.

4. The exchange does not yet look like a prelude to effective negotiations. Based on the concept of "chaos in American politics," Putin needs to lead the Biden and then Trump administrations by the nose to force them to start a dialogue with Russia.

For Putin, the main task is to return to dialogue. And dialogue is now Putin's main goal.

5. What is the likelihood of a conflict freeze this year (early next year)? There are two directly opposite concepts. One assumes that this freeze is possible. The second, based on Pompeo's plan, foresees a war for another year or two. During this time, Russia will finally destroy (thanks to the Armed Forces) Soviet stockpiles of tanks, armored personnel carriers and aircraft, and therefore, in the long term, for at least 5-7 years, Russia will not be physically able to threaten NATO. The second scenario now looks more likely, especially given that Putin has trapped himself and cannot radically reduce his demands.

6. The ideal scenario for the United States is the maximum weakening of the Russian Federation with a turn towards the West (separation from China). For China, the ideal scenario is the weakening of the Russian Federation and maximum ties to China. At the same time, Russia does not have the technological capability to build a strong regional power in the next 10-15 years without the United States or China. The (technological) degradation of the Russian economy has already begun.

Given this background, it would be extremely important for Putin to stop the war now and try to flirt with Beijing and Washington at the same time, but it seems that he is clearly not ready for serious concessions. And the main reason is to recognise that Russia is not the third pole of the world.

7. As for Ukraine, we have to understand: Putin wants to repeat the history of the late 18th century, known as the three partitions of Poland, on our territory. But back then, it was possible to do so primarily through an international coalition to support this process. Now, our main diplomatic task is to prevent even hints of such a coalition from forming. If anyone thinks that this is impossible, they are deeply mistaken.

Source

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the views expressed by the authors of the blogs.