National game: Russia is playing nuclear ping-pong

No one in Moscow knows where the 'red line' of national strategic interests is, after crossing which the 'leader' threatened to push the nuclear button. This ignorance makes the swamp 'elites' quarrel with each other. And the trends are completely unpredictable: Medvedev is habitually hysterical, calling for an immediate tactical strike, and Rogozhin, who has been wounded 'below the back' (read: in the center of decision-making), is playing along.

Medvedev is no stranger; he, the enlightened one, believed in a separate 'paradise' for Russians in the event of an atomic apocalypse. Rogozhin has nothing to do after exploring the vast expanses of luxury space.

There is another supporter of 'quick fixes' (a nuclear strike on Ukraine) who, after the drone story over the Kremlin, compared Kyiv and Zelenskyy to terrorist groups like al-Qaeda or ISIS. This is State Duma Speaker Volodin. After his atomic passages, Russian Telegram channels began to spread news of real preparations: they say that orders have been sent to the air bases in Engels (Saratov region) and Shaikovka (Kaluga region) to prepare a number of TU-22Ms, which carry nuclear charges, for flights.

Prigozhin emotionally denies the need to use nuclear weapons. “As a radicalized person, I can say that the use of nuclear weapons in response to a drone is, of course, out of the question,” the owner of the Wagner PMC said. 

But the absolute surprise was the statements of other characters in this tent, those who are in one way or another closer to the realities of war, and therefore know about the combat capability of the Russian Army and the Armed Forces, and therefore have a more sober assessment of the state of affairs (paradoxical as it may sound for Russia). So, the 'prisoner commander' Prigozhin, who is furious in his criticism of Shoigu and his department, is no less emotional in denying the need to use nuclear weapons. “As a radicalized person, I can say that the use of nuclear weapons in response to a drone is, of course, out of the question,” the owner of the Wagner PMC said.

It should be noted that the restraint of 'Putin's cook' is surprising, because he is really angry with the Ministry of Defense. This anger did not stop him even before a video demonstration of the losses of his mercenaries near Bakhmut. Like, look, staff rats, what your incompetence and political games lead to.

In agreement with Prigozhin, the furious Ramzan also spoke out against the use of nuclear weapons in a banal 'special military operation' (this is how a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine currently looks in the imagination of the average resident of the Russian Tmutarakan). Kadyrov, who had been methodically stirring up nuclear hysteria, gradually moved away from the topic, broadcasting 'fatherly admonitions' to the world about the dangers of nuclear war. Now he is in solidarity with Prigozhin, and considers Medvedev, Rogozhin, and Volodin to be jesters without brains or political 'flair.'

In any case, the nuclear ping-pong within Russia's 'elites' is indirect evidence of Moscow's unpreparedness for military surprises. If one unidentified UAV over the dome of Putin's residence caused such a stir (“we look like clowns threatening a 'nuclear bomb' on a child's drone,” Prigozhin said), what can we expect after the Ukrainian army launches a counteroffensive?

“The division into nuclear hawks and doves demonstrates that Putin has lost his monopoly on visions of ending the war. Putin desperately needs a truce (it's not really peace). The nuclear hysteria of the top speakers in the Russian media space could destroy the worldview construction that the Kremlin hermit is carefully building.”

Moreover, the division into nuclear hawks and doves demonstrates that Putin has lost his monopoly on visions of ending the war. Peskov's boring mantras about 'readiness' for negotiations, high-profile visits of Chinese leader to the 'bunker one' and the unveiling of Beijing's dubious 'peace formula,' and the involvement of the Pope in a 'peacekeeping mission' Putin desperately needs a truce (it's not what you'd call peace) to anchor himself in the captured Ukrainian territories, stop the Ukrainian army's counteroffensive, regroup his military forces and possibly the political landscape, and strengthen his dictatorship.

“A disoriented, quarreling Russia is ready for a civil war. And I have my doubts that the participants in this bloody 'reconstruction' will set as their primary goal the acquisition of the 'nuclear button.' Most likely, this goal will be banal physical survival…”

The nuclear hysteria of the top speakers in the Russian media space can destroy the worldview construct that the Kremlin hermit is carefully building. And the 'wars' between its 'strategists' make it clear that even with a virtual desire to negotiate, neither Kyiv, Washington, nor the collective West knows with whom to do so. Not to mention the answer to the question: “Why?”

Disoriented, quarreling Russia is ready for civil war. It doesn't matter what the starting shot will be - the Ukrainian Armed Forces reaching the 1991 borders (including the liberation of Crimea), another (perhaps a celebratory drone salute over the Red Cross procession on May 9), a palace coup, or - what a surprise - the death of the leader. And I have my doubts that the participants in this bloody 'reconstruction' will set as their primary goal the acquisition of the 'nuclear button.' Most likely, this goal will be banal physical survival…

About the author. Ihor Hulyk, journalist, Editor-in-Chief of the Espreso website. 

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.