ISW: Russia resumes offensive near Kupyansk, but unlikely to succeed

The Institute for the Study of War writes about this.

It is noted that the Ukrainian military reported a decrease in the activity of Russian troops near Kupyansk in recent weeks. However, on October 6, the spokesman for the Eastern Group of Ukrainian forces, Ilya Yevlash, said that the Russian troops resumed combat operations in the Kupyansk-Lyman direction.

Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces launched an offensive push near Synkivka (8km northeast of Kupyansk) and that Russian forces are heavily shelling the N26 (Shevchenkove-Kupyansk) highway. One milblogger characterized the renewed Russian offensive push towards Kupyansk as “large-scale” in a now-deleted post.

Analysts point out that Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov previously reported that the Russian military deployed elements of the newly formed 25th Combined Arms Army (CAA) to the Kupyansk direction to replace elements of the 41st CAA. According to ISW, the resumption of Russian offensive operations near Kupyansk, possibly including elements of the 25th CAA, is likely intended to draw Ukrainian attention away from other sectors of the front in southern Ukraine.

"ISW previously assessed, however, that the 25th CAA was hurriedly deployed ahead of an intended deployment date of December 2023 and is likely severely understaffed, poorly trained, or both," the report reads.

• The day before, Yevlash said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to drive the Russian troops out of their positions in the Bakhmut direction. At the same time, the invaders intensified hostilities in the Lyman-Kupyansk sector.