ISW report highlights Russian challenges in Avdiivka attacks

This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). 

The report underscores the ongoing division in the Russian information space regarding the prospects of their success near Avdiivka and Ukraine's current capabilities. 

Some sources from opposing forces recently claimed that Ukrainian defense fortifications present a significant obstacle to Russian advances in the Avdiivka area.

Furthermore, Russia faces issues related to medical support, which are affecting their progress in the region. Reports on October 12 indicated a shortage of surgeons in the occupied Horlivka and Donetsk areas near Avdiivka, prompting a call for Russian medical personnel to aid in treating wounded soldiers.

Similarly, on October 14, Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, spokesperson for the Tavria group of Ukrainian troops, pointed out that most of the Russian casualties in the Avdiivka area were attributed to inadequate medical care and overcrowding in local hospitals.

While some Russian military bloggers continued to express support for Russia’s offensive efforts on October 13 and 14, reiterating the Kremlin's preferred narrative of the Ukrainian counteroffensive being over, one blogger cautioned against dismissing it too hastily. This blogger suggested that it was premature to determine whether the Russian attacks near Avdiivka would evolve into a fully organized offensive operation.

Russian offensive on the key city of Avdiivka in eastern Donetsk region

On October 11, the Institute for the Study of War noted that the Russian occupying army had intensified its offensive around Avdiivka in the Donetsk region. The city has been a frontline one for almost 10 years, and now Russian troops are trying to encircle it.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that in the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Armed Forces repelled 10 attacks near Avdiivka and another 8 attacks east of Stepove and southeast of Sieverne in the Donetsk region.

The head of Avdiivka City Military Administration, Vitaliy Barabash, reported shelling of Avdiivka, Donetsk region, which killed an elderly man and wounded two civilians.

On October 12, experts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) named the real reasons for the Russian offensive on Avdiivka.

Vitaliy Barabash, head of the Avdiivka City Military Administration, noted that Russian troops are trying to concentrate their forces north of the city, launching assault operations.

On October 13, the ISW reported that in three days, Russian troops had captured 4.52 square kilometers of territory from different directions near Avdiivka. The occupying Russian army suffered significant losses in equipment and manpower. 

On October 14, the ISW reported that Russia's recent attempts to attack Avdiivka had failed, and their offensive seemed to face significant challenges. Ukrainian defense forces successfully repelled about 20 attacks in the Avdiivka direction on that day.

John Kirby, the coordinator of the White House's Security Council, pointed out that the new Russian army offensive near Lyman and Avdiivka didn't catch the United States by surprise. He also expressed confidence that Ukrainian defenders would fend off the invaders' attack.

Following this, Oleksandr Shtupun reported a notable reduction in the number of Russian armored vehicles in the Avdiivka direction.

Subsequently, it was revealed that Russian forces had set a new target date for their complete capture of territories to the administrative borders of the Donetsk region. They aim to achieve this by December 31, 2023. They are currently causing destruction in Avdiivka.