Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka face setbacks - ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.

Analyst sources claimed that Russian forces continued to attack areas north and south of Avdiivka, and geolocation footage released on October 12 and 13 indicated that Russian forces had advanced south of Krasnohorivka (5km north of Avdiivka) and southeast of Pervomaiske (11km southwest of Avdiivka).

Russian sources also published conflicting reports about previous claims by Russian sources of Russian control of the Avdiivka Coke Plant, and ISW has not observed any evidence to confirm that Russian forces control the plant as of publication.

“Ukrainian military officials reported that Ukrainian forces continue to repel Russian attacks around Avdiivka. A Russian milblogger noted that Ukrainian forces are using minefields to slow down Russian advances in the Avdiivka direction,” the statement reads.

A Russian volunteer in the 4th Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Brigade (2nd Army Corps, Southern Military District) claimed that worn out barrels are reducing the accuracy of Russian artillery near Avdiivka.

The Institute reports that the volunteer assessed Russian forces can ”compress the [Ukrainian] perimeter” by capturing less fortified Ukrainian-held territory near Avdiivka, but expressed concern that Russian generals will misinterpret these limited advances and try to speed up offensive efforts towards Avdiivka.

The volunteer noted that such a misinterpretation may lead Russian forces to “beat on concrete” fortifications until these forces run out.

Key conclusions:

• Ongoing Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka, Donetsk region, reportedly faced setbacks on October 13.

• The Russian military command appears to be restricting discussion of the Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka in the Russian information space, likely in an attempt to adapt to previous information shocks and control any narratives that emerge in the Russian information space around these operations.

• The Kremlin is likely attempting to frame Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka and other localized efforts as Russian forces seizing the operational initiative in Ukraine.