ISW: Putin's decision not to liquidate Wagner PMC puts him in awkward position

This is noted by analysts at ISW.

Unknown persons leaked an image of what appears to be the Wagner Group’s founding charter on July 9, possibly to present the Wagner Group as a professional organization.

"The document reiterates that Wagner’s founding principles are to fight Russia’s war in Ukraine in loyal service to Russian President Vladimir Putin and “the Russian nation. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to not rapidly dispose of the Wagner Group and prosecute rebellion participants is placing himself and his subordinates in an awkward position," analysts suggest. 

At the same time, it is noted that it remains unclear who benefits from the leak of the alleged founding document of Wagner, since this document makes Wagner's group professional and attractive compared to the regular Russian military.

Wagner is reportedly still recruiting in Russia, while Russia's Ministry of Defense is reportedly conducting a competitive effort to recruit Wagner fighters to sign MoD contracts.

Putin's decision not to get rid of Wagner's group makes it difficult for him and other Russian power players to know how to interact with them and their leaders and fighters.

Prigozhin's mutiny in Russia

For several months, there has been a conflict between Yevgeny Prigozhin, the financier of Wagner PMC, and the Russian Ministry of Defense. However, the situation escalated quickly on the evening of June 23.

Allegedly, Russian troops launched a missile attack on the Wagner base. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner PMC, announced a "march of justice" and stated that 25,000 mercenaries were heading to Moscow. In Moscow itself, defensive positions were established, trenches were dug, and all security forces were mobilized.

However, on the evening of June 24, the press service of the self-proclaimed President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, released a statement in which the head of the Wagner PMC stated that he was ready to stop the advance of his mercenaries' military convoys, which were already approaching Moscow, and to reach an agreement with the Kremlin. Prigozhin allegedly agreed on this during a conversation with Lukashenko.

Subsequently, Prigozhin and all his fighters left the headquarters of Russia's Southern Military District. Russian leader Vladimir Putin promised that Prigozhin would be able to go to Belarus, and Russia would close the criminal case against him.

On June 26, Russian media reported that the leader of PMC Wagner remained under investigation in the case of organizing a coup in Russia, despite the Kremlin's statements about closing the case.

On the same day, Putin gave a speech in which he offered the Wagner PMC fighters three options for future actions: join the Russian Defense Forces, go to Belarus with other PMC members, or return to their families.

On June 27, the Federal Security Service of Russia announced that it dropped the criminal case related to the armed plot, in which Wagner PMC leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was involved.

On the same day, the self-proclaimed President of Belarus confirmed the arrival of Yevgeny Prigozhin in the country. According to him, the Wagner mercenaries who arrived with him would not guard the Russian tactical nuclear weapons stationed there.

Satellite images that were shared online on June 29 revealed the construction of a tent camp in the Mogilev region of Belarus. It was speculated that the camp could be for the Wagner.

On July 3, Russian mass media released photos taken by local residents, claiming that the Wagner camp was indeed located in the Mogilev region of Belarus. However, Ukrainian intelligence suggested that it is unlikely that Prigozhin would relocate all the fighters to Belarus permanently. It seems that only a portion of the Wagner fighters may have been moved there.

On July 6, Lukashenko officially stated that the Wagner fighters are present in their field camps, while Prigozhin remains in Russian territory.

Read more on the events here.