ISW predicts consequences for Russia from providing Ukraine with ATACMS

This was reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Analysts say that the US probably secretly delivered the ATACMS systems to give the Ukrainian forces a surprise advantage, and the Russian side was shocked by this move.

They also point out that Russia will likely disperse its aircraft to different airfields in occupied Ukraine and move them further away from the front, making it more difficult for it to support its defensive and offensive actions with air power.

According to experts, this will be difficult and will affect Russian helicopters, which have long operated in small areas of the front to deter Ukraine's mechanized forces at the beginning of the counteroffensive in June-July 2023. The distribution of aircraft across multiple airfields is also likely to create problems for the coordination and support of Russian air and space operations.

The emergence of long-range missiles also poses a serious threat to Russian ammunition depots in the rear and is likely to force the Russian command to choose between reinforcing existing depots and further distributing them throughout the occupied Ukrainian territory.

Background

On the night of October 16-17, Ukrainian defenders successfully attacked Russian helicopters and airfields in Luhansk and Berdyansk.

Foreign media wrote that during this attack, Ukraine used for the first time against Russian troops the American long-range ATACMS missiles, which the United States had secretly sent a few days earlier.

In the evening, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced their use against Russian troops, and Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi demonstrated how Ukrainian defenders used them.

The White House confirmed the delivery of missiles to Ukraine.

What is known about sending ATACMS to Ukraine

On April 19, the United States announced another USD 325 million military aid package to Ukraine, which included HIMARS and artillery shells.

At the end of May, representatives of the US Congress called on Biden to send the missiles to Ukraine. In a letter addressed to the US President, the leaders of the bipartisan Helsinki Commission called on the White House to authorize the delivery of the US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to Ukraine.

On June 10, members of both parties in the US House of Representatives introduced a resolution calling on Joe Biden to send ATACMS to Ukraine.

On June 21, the House Foreign Affairs Committee supported a resolution to Biden calling for the immediate delivery of ATACMS to Ukraine.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the United States is close to making a decision to provide Ukraine with long-range tactical missile systems ATACMS.

The WP reported that the US does not have enough ATACMS missiles to provide them to Ukraine. 

On September 9, it was reported that the United States may provide missiles to Ukraine in the next aid package.

On September 12, media reported that the Biden administration was close to approving the supply of longer-range missiles to Ukraine, which are immediately equipped with cluster munitions.

On September 15, The Wall Street Journal reported that Ukraine is close to receiving ATACMS missiles from the United States this fall.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on September 15, that the Ukrainian military will use US missiles as they see appropriate. 

During the talks in the White House on September 22, US President Joe Biden reportedly assured Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Ukraine would receive a small number of ATACMS missiles.

On September 28, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that the supply of long-range missiles to Ukraine was discussed during a meeting between President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, US President Joe Biden, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz last week.

On October 3, Bloomberg reported that the Pentagon is ready to provide Ukraine with ATACMS missiles very quickly – they are only waiting for the final approval of US President Joe Biden.

On October 10, Biden's advisor Sullivan revealed who opposed the provision of ATACMS to Ukraine.