Idea of 'Belgorod breakthrough'

Let me explain a few basic points.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive is coming. But it has a drawback: everyone knows about it, because the plan itself is absolutely obvious. That's why the Russians are waiting for it and have built defensive lines and facilities elsewhere. Besides, they still have enough 'meat.' And for us, 'meat assaults' are not a solution and not an acceptable way to wage war. We must ensure that Russia's defense becomes more vulnerable and weak.

Missiles, artillery, and attacks on military infrastructure help here, first of all. But there is one more thing.

For Ukraine, it is crucial to make the direction of the main attack as surprising as possible, having previously weakened the Russian position there. 

“For us, 'meat assaults' are not a solution and not an acceptable way to wage war. We have to ensure that Russia's defense becomes more vulnerable and weak.”

And here we have a pleasant circumstance that is useful for us. The length of the frontline of the Ukrainian-Russian war is about 2,500 kilometers. At the same time, Russian logistics are much more stretched than Ukrainian ones.

Russian forces are stretched all along this front. Ukrainian forces can be deployed quite compactly due to their short logistical arm (compared to Russia).

For example, to move manpower from Belgorod to Rostov, or from Voronezh to the occupied part of the Kherson region, Russians need to cover a much longer distance (in a circle, often with a hook into the depths of Russian territory). We need much less resources and, most importantly, time to move our forces from Kharkiv to Zaporizhzhia. Or even from Lviv to Kostiantynivka.

It is very convenient when the country is large but compact. It is very inconvenient when you have stretched your front and have very limited reserves to plug the holes if they arise. And here we have a bunch of high-quality weapons, and the number and quality of munitions is constantly growing. That's why we have to carry out transportation with an additional logistical lag.

“It is very convenient when the country is large but compact. It is very inconvenient when you have stretched your front and have very limited reserves to plug the holes if they arise. And here we have a bunch of high-quality weapons, and the number and quality of munitions is constantly growing.”

Therefore, it is quite logical that Russians friendly to Ukraine will gradually work more and more actively to liberate Russia from the occupation of the Putin regime. Because Russians must be twitchy, Russian commanders must be twitchy, and the political leadership in the Kremlin must remember how they organized military operations under the separatist flag. The more troops and equipment that are guarding Belgorod, the fewer they will be in places where we need them to be fewer. This is, in fact, the first obvious reason.

In addition, there is an information and propaganda component: each such action further undermines the legitimacy of Putin and his entire regime, which is unable to stop either the attacks of Ukrainian drones in the deep rear or effectively fight saboteurs.

Putin has been building the most militarized and masculine image possible. Russians are supposed to obey and keep quiet. And with these constant slaps in the face, this image is being consistently destroyed. No, such things do not lead to an uprising or revolution. Moreover, they do not lead to the mobilization of society. Putin has consistently atrophied this ability of Russians. Such actions lead to flight, evasion and degradation. This is where the decline in legitimacy manifests itself. This is exactly what we need.

Source

About the author. Yuriy Bohdanov, publicist and strategic communications specialist in business, public administration and politics.

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