Explosion over Kremlin will shake the whole Russia 

A blow to the Kremlin is:

1. The ineptitude of Russian air defense?

2. An action planned by the Russians themselves?

We cannot rule out any of these options. Although, in my opinion, the second option is less likely – a blast over the Kremlin will not make Russians volunteer to the front. And it's hard to think of another reason to show such air defence failures after the Pantsirs installed on the roofs. Can the Kremlin make some kind of super response? Theoretically, yes, but the destruction of the Ukrainian president's office building will not affect the course of the fighting in any way, and I emphasize: not at all.

So, the Kremlin paused for 12 hours before giving an official confirmation: the drone exploded over the main flagpole of the Russian Federation (whether the drone was launched by Russians or partisans is irrelevant).

“A single explosion over the Kremlin will shake the entire Russian Federation. But it cannot change the situation fundamentally. Let's hope that further similar explosions and wrong personnel and management decisions will further destabilize the system. This is the hybrid war that Gerasimov has been touting. This is what a hybrid counteroffensive looks like”

Let's try to figure out what the Kremlin can and cannot do.

1. There will be no nuclear asymmetric strike, although someone like Medvedev may claim it.

2. The Kremlin can make a tough statement and even strike a few Kinzhal missiles at the centre of Kyiv. This cannot be ruled out, so be careful. Although, the probability of an attack today is relatively low.

3. The Kremlin's main problem is what to do with the 9.05 parade. To cancel it means the government is weak. Not to cancel is dangerous, and everyone will start talking about double agents with triple power. Putin is a coward. And this is the most difficult issue for him.

4. Apparently, conspiracy theories will now appear in Russia that the drone was launched by one of the Russian enemies of Shoigu and Gerasimov. Although so far it looks like pure conspiracy theorising. But this version can get a lot of apologists. After all, now Putin must begin purges in the high command of the Russian army. And this plays right into the hands of Prigozhin.

A single explosion over the Kremlin will shake the entire Russian Federation. But it cannot change the situation fundamentally. Let's hope that further similar explosions and wrong personnel and management decisions will further destabilize the system. This is the hybrid war that Gerasimov has been touting. This is what a hybrid counteroffensive looks like

Source.

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.