Discussions about how Ukraine can replace Finland for Europe are dangerous

I envy the Finns a bit. In a good way, of course. They deserve to be NATO members, because their war of 1939 became part of the nation's DNA, just as ours is becoming and will be in the future. The significance of Finland's and later Sweden's accession is incredibly broader than this symbolic story. Russia gains a new border with NATO, and the Scandinavian countries have already agreed to operate all combat aircraft, more than 250 of them, as a single group. The Baltic Sea is effectively becoming NATO's.

Moreover, the security balance in the Arctic is almost impossible for Russia anymore - I'm sure Putin is trying to convince Xi to help rebuild it - Russia itself is no longer capable of doing so, even with additional human and military resources.

“I am very concerned about the discussion that is gaining momentum in the West that Ukraine should take the place of Finland. Of course, not literally, but in the sense of 'Finlandization' - that is, like “the movement to the EU - yes, but the movement to NATO - let it wait for 'better' times.” After all, the decision to join NATO would mean “a direct military conflict with the Kremlin, and this is a red line.””

But along with the 'white' envy of the Finns, I am very concerned about the discussion that is gaining momentum in the West that Ukraine should take the place of Finland. Of course, not literally, but in the sense of 'Finlandization' - that is, like “the movement to the EU - yes, but the movement to NATO - let it wait for 'better' times.” After all, the decision to join NATO would mean “a direct military conflict with the Kremlin, and this is a red line.”

Drawing red lines in relation to the Kremlin is always a weakness that it feels almost animal-like. But a significant part of the West wants to defeat Russia through the strategy of 'a thousand cuts' and this logic fits this strategy for some in the West. As well as, unfortunately, the argument about the strength of our armed forces, as there is a strategic and tactical temptation to use them and Ukraine as a whole to deter the Russian regime. Therefore, regardless of the timeframe for NATO membership, we need the guarantees that Finland and Sweden received from the NATO nuclear powers at the time of accession. Only such a security structure will be security stable, no other. The path of Finland should be repeated, but without 'Finlandization.'

Source

About the author. Pavlo Klimkin, diplomat, former Ukraine's Foreign Minister.

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