Trump will help Ukraine if its victory is part of victory over Chinese threat

Politico notes that in his recent phone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Donald Trump emphasized that reports that he would withdraw support for Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression are fake news and that he will seek a just peace for Ukraine.

Of course, it is important to understand how the former U.S. president sees this just peace. However, according to the columnist, the fact that Donald Trump spoke to Volodymyr Zelenskyy immediately after he decided on his candidacy for the Vice President of the United States is a strong enough indication that one can not be certain about the results that can be achieved if Trump returns to the White House.

As the columnist emphasizes, the idea that Donald Trump's election will be catastrophic for Ukraine is based primarily on his promises to end the war in 48 hours through negotiations with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, as well as Trump's decision to choose J.D. Vance, known for his well-established anti-Ukrainian stance, as vice president. And Donald Trump's son is known to have recently publicly mocked the Ukrainian president. However, at the same time, the publication points out that if Donald Trump decided to talk to Volodymyr Zelenskyy immediately after he chose the vice presidential candidate, it is a signal to those radical supporters of the former American president in the Republican Party who have long blocked aid to Ukraine in the United States Congress.

We need to understand that these congressmen and other political activists are so fixated on Donald Trump's view that they will be exactly where the former American president is. If Trump decides to help Ukraine, they will support this position, because, as we know, these people do not have any views of their own on how the situation in the United States and in the world should develop, they are guided primarily by Trump's views.

"And here, a very important point is what Trump's views on the situation related to Russia's further war against Ukraine should actually be."

The publication emphasizes that these views are currently being fiercely fought over: there are advisers who suggest that Trump resolve the war through negotiations with Russia, and to do so, deny Ukraine military aid if Kyiv is not in favor of negotiations with the Kremlin.

However, there are supporters of a different position, which, in particular, was expressed by former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in his recent article for the Wall Street Journal. As you know, the former Secretary of State's views on resolving the war in Ukraine are primarily peace through strength, and Pompeo believes that aid to Ukraine should be increased, for example, through a multi-billion dollar land deal, and Russia should be subjected to real sanctions. However, again, the former U.S. Secretary of State does not explain what these real U.S. sanctions against the Russian Federation should be and how they will differ in terms of their effectiveness from the sanctions that have already been imposed.

The land lease is also a very important issue, especially when it comes to $500 billion, but we need to understand what its terms will be and how Ukraine will pay the United States for the supply of military equipment in the future. However, the very fact that Trump's entourage includes both people who are ready to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin and people who see the war as resolved through force and further pressure on the Russian Federation means that we cannot predict what Donald Trump's presidency will be like if the former American president returns to the Oval Office.

And here, of course, it is important to know who exactly this person will be, who Donald Trump will agree with, what forces in the Republican Party will be taken into account in terms of the position on the Ukrainian crisis by the American president and those whom he will appoint to the highest positions in his administration if he wins. I am referring, first of all, to the National Security Advisor or, say, the Secretary of State.

“Here we need to understand a very important thing: it is important for Trump to link the issue of the war in Ukraine to the foreign policy priorities that he is now declaring, which is, first of all, the vision of China as the greatest threat to the United States.”

As you know, Donald Trump has already expressed this position when he was President of the United States and has not changed it: it is competition with China, confrontation with Beijing, that will be the central content of his entire foreign policy strategy if he wins the presidential election. However, if Trump accepts this view that Russia has become a proxy for China as a result of its war, and that the idea that Russia can be disengaged from China is more of an illusion than a reality, then the administration's task, if it is really going to confront China about Beijing's influence on the future foreign policy economic interests of the United States, is to weaken Russia's influence. Then, of course, the victory of Ukraine in its war with the Russian Federation and the very just peace that Trump promised Zelenskyy will become real goals of the President of the United States himself, if Trump is the president. And it is in terms of the Chinese threat that we should talk to Trump and his inner circle when it comes to ending the Russian-Ukrainian war and how the United States should behave toward Vladimir Putin and his terrorist, unjust state.

“And, of course, there is the question of another potential winner of the U.S. presidential election, Kamala Harris, because it is obvious that the vice president will not simply continue the foreign policy course that was the content of the current U.S. President Joseph Biden's activities.”

Kamala Harris may have her own positions on how the situation in Russia's war with Ukraine should develop. These positions may also be related to the views of her foreign policy team, which will differ significantly from Biden's advisors, who are unlikely to remain in the White House if Kamala Harris becomes the new President of the United States.

From this point of view, Harris herself and her associates also need to be worked with today to address issues related to future developments on the Russian-Ukrainian front.

Source

About the author. Vitaly Portnikov, journalist, winner of the Shevchenko National Prize of Ukraine.

The editors don’t always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.