What F-16s can do in Ukrainian skies and Ukraine’s trump card against Russian aviation

Meanwhile, skepticism is surfacing, with some arguing that the number of F-16s provided is insufficient or that the models are too outdated to make a difference.

Oleksandr Kovalenko, a political and military observer with the Information resistance group, takes a closer look at these concerns.

When European countries announced they would supply F-16 fighters to Ukraine last year, it sparked extensive debate among experts on how the F-16s would match up against Russian aircraft. Many analyses were overly simplistic, focusing mainly on aircraft specifications and comparing performance metrics in isolation, the observer highlights. 

According to him, it's important to clarify that classic air-to-air battles, like those depicted in movies, are unlikely. The F-16 will be used differently, so expect less of a "Top Gun" scenario and more of a strategic deployment.

F-16 vs. Russian Aircraft

The F-16's Russian counterparts include various models like the Su-27, Su-30, Su-35, Su-34, Su-57, and MiG-29/31/35. Direct comparisons between the F-16 and high-end Russian jets like the Su-35 or Su-57 are somewhat misleading because the F-16 is a light fighter, more closely matched to the MiG-29/35 in its class.

Although the F-16 is indeed older, it still holds its ground well. The radar systems on Russian aircraft, such as the Bars radar on the Su-30, the Zaslon-M radar on the MiG-31BM, and the Irbis radar on the Su-35, have impressive ranges, but these numbers are based on detecting targets with large radar cross-sections (RCS). The F-16's RCS is significantly smaller (1.2-5 m²), which reduces the effectiveness of these radars against it.

While the F-16AM version that Ukraine is receiving might seem outdated compared to the F-16C/D, it is still equipped with the APG-66(V)2A radar. This radar, with a maximum detection range of 130 km, is effective against targets with an RCS of 3 m². Russian aircraft, with their larger RCS, will be detected more easily by this radar.

Engagement and Missile Capabilities

Russian propaganda has suggested that the F-16s will be easily destroyed by R-37 missiles, which have a claimed range of 200-300 km. However, the real engagement range depends on detection capabilities and missile guidance. The AIM-120D missile, the primary air-to-air weapon for the F-16, has a range of 180 km, which might seem shorter, but the effective range for both aircraft and missiles often turns out to be closer due to real-world conditions.

Russian MiG-31BM's long-range strikes, such as those achieved with R-37 missiles, were supported by A-50 AWACS aircraft. Since A-50s are not currently operating in the combat zone, F-16s will have more equal opportunities against Russian aircraft, especially in the absence of this support.

The Role of AEW&C Aircraft

Ukraine will also receive two Saab 340 AEW&C aircraft from Sweden. These will significantly enhance the F-16's capabilities by providing early warning and targeting information. The Saab 340 AEW&C can detect targets at up to 450 km, which will complement the F-16's radar and give it a strategic advantage over Russian aircraft.

While Soviet-era aircraft like the MiG-29 or Su-27 might struggle to fully utilize this advantage due to the lack of advanced data exchange systems like Link 16, the F-16 will benefit greatly from the AEW&C support.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while the F-16AM might not be the most advanced model, it is far from obsolete when paired with modern support systems like the Saab 340 AEW&C. It will be effective against Russian aircraft, potentially offering equal or superior performance in many scenarios. The combination of the F-16AM and AEW&C capabilities could significantly enhance Ukraine's air defense and offensive capabilities against Russian threats.