Ukraine will target Kalibr missile carriers next: weekly military results 

Strikes on Russia

The 4th of July brought promising news as Ukrainian naval drones showcased their unique maritime capabilities by hitting an enemy ship at a distance of 700 kilometers from Odesa. This achievement demonstrates that Ukraine's drones can effectively dominate the entire Black Sea, despite challenges with Starlinks and the like. We witnessed almost real-time attacks on Russian landing ships. The successful operation utilized a new drone, the Magura 5B, equipped with a powerful warhead.

At the Turkey exhibition, discussions centered around a 300 kg payload for the drones, but some officials now claim it was actually 450 kg that hit the Russian ship. This points to the significant limitations of the Russian army's capabilities, as Novorossiysk, a strategic base for Russia, is not as safe from Ukrainian drone attacks as they thought. The port is used as a transportation corridor for supplying property to Berdyansk. The next targets of Ukrainian drones, I think, will primarily be aimed at Kalibr missile carriers. Although this time there have been two carriers in the bay, most submarines and missile ships are usually based there. Furthermore, Russian oil terminals have also been hit today, limiting Russia's economic capacity to utilize Novorossiysk as an oil transshipment point.

The destruction of the Russian oil storage facility in Feodosia

Ukraine continues to limit the capabilities of the Russian army in Crimea. We are talking about stocks of ammunition, fuel to supply the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and logistics routes. These things are key in the strategy of attrition implemented by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. For this purpose, foreign munitions are used. To achieve this, foreign munitions, likely Storm Shadow missiles, are utilized for their exceptional accuracy and resistance to Russia's air defense system, making them difficult to shoot down. Control over the supply routes to and from Crimea, as well as facilities on the peninsula, is in the crosshairs of Ukrainian weapons. This is the current reality that Russia must take into account. This is an important component of ensuring the rapid de-occupation of Crimea.

Western weapons for Ukraine

During exercises in Australia, the Ukrainian Armed Forces utilized ATACMS missiles. American observers acknowledged that Ukraine needed these missiles, yet they were employed in Australia. The explanation provided was that only 4,000 ATACMS missiles were produced.  Approximately 600 of them were used in similar exercises. Yet, despite the pressing need for this weapon to enhance Ukraine's capability to target and destroy distant threats, the delivery of ATACMS to Ukraine is still being delayed.

Regarding the German Taurus missile, it boasts an impressive range of up to 500 kilometers and a powerful 500-kilogram warhead, double the size of ATACMS. However, German officials have cited the lack of long-range missile supply from the United States as a reason for not providing them to Ukraine. Despite this, Germany has been a valuable partner, offering significant military aid such as Gepard, air defense systems, Leopard tanks, and Marder infantry fighting vehicles. While the Taurus issue may eventually find resolution, in the meantime, Ukraine will likely rely on British and French missiles, which have already proven effective. And wait for ATACMS. Germany continues to train our military, provide equipment repairs, and supply ammunition – a critical aspect of our defense. The stability of the front and offensive efforts largely hinge on ammunition supply, as the current conflict calls for sustained artillery support. The US and EU companies' cooperation in providing ammunition will play a pivotal role in supporting Ukraine's strategic objectives during this war of attrition.

The situation in the Vuhledar direction

The Vuhledar direction is the closest to the Azov coast. Volnovakha marks the beginning of a railroad transportation corridor that runs in the middle of a land corridor that is still controlled by Russia. The Vuhledar direction was quite calm for some time. For several weeks, there were no special actions in the format of the Southern front. They were held in the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions, which were considered the main ones. However, these actions still managed to shake the enemy's defense, compelling them to deploy reserves to deter Ukrainian forces. Now, the Vuhledar direction is also being added to the forefront of operations

The operations in the Vasylivka direction have intensified, with active movements towards Pyatykhatky, Zherebyanka, and Vuhledar, where the 128th Brigade is engaged. This expansion has led to the emergence of four directions instead of two, making it harder for the enemy to restrain and predict the Ukrainian Defense Forces' movements. The Russian Federation is experiencing the depletion of its reserves, as their preparation efforts have not been enough to hold the frontline against Ukraine's offensive. The effective use of artillery by the Ukrainian forces has resulted in the destruction of Russian manpower, facilities, and artillery, further contributing to their strategy of attrition. With the expansion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' areas of operation and the emergence of the Vuhledar direction, new challenges arise for the Russian army, creating potential prerequisites for breaking through their defense after a period of attrition. This is a strategic approach that continues to involve the use of infantry and artillery by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Russian defense line

Russian forces have constructed numerous defensive structures, including mined areas, yet they are still manned. Despite not directly engaging their main line of defense, we have managed to draw out a significant portion of their reserves to eliminate them. This sets the stage for a potentially easier passage through their defense line in the future. The crucial aspect of this conflict lies in the careful calculation of reserves by both General Staffs. Both our forces and the enemy's have limited reserves, and losses are incurred on both sides. Russia's unsuccessful offensive in the northeast and subsequent repositioning of forces around Bakhmut, coupled with five active directions on the southern front, poses serious challenges for Russia's available resources. Then the importance of defense lines fades into the background, and the enemy's availability of forces and means is key.

Situation in the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna area

On July 4, Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said that the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line remains the most active in terms of enemy activity, as they want to divert forces in this area from other areas and replay the situation along the entire front line.

Despite successfully repelling Russia around Karmazynivka and reducing their bridgehead on the right bank of the Zherebets River, the enemy remains persistent, fighting along the entire length. 

They are attempting to launch attacks from Senkivka towards Kupyansk and are engaged in intense fighting in Novoselivske, where they have come dangerously close to the railroad. The entire area from Svatove to Kreminna is also under heavy fire from both sides, although the front line is not changing, but the intensity is quite high. Kreminna is the hottest spot on this front.

Fighting persists in the Serebryanske forestry, resulting in the destruction of Russian equipment. However, Russia is using aviation and artillery to exert pressure on our units in the area. The struggle for control over the key settlement of Bilohorivka continues, as Russia aims to eliminate the risks of the Ukrainian Defense Forces advancing in that region. I think that Svatove, Kreminna and Kupyansk will be hot spots for some time to come, but we understand that even the presence of significant reserves does not allow Russia to secure significant success and advantage. The enemy made a mistake by launching this offensive, as it tied up some of its forces in this area. Now they have limited resources for actions around Bakhmut and along the entire southern front.

Bakhmut direction

According to an acquaintance involved in certain activities there, there has been a significant increase in the number of Russian artillery in the region. This has made it challenging for the Ukrainian Defense Forces to push from the heights to Klishchiivka. The artillery fire is so dense that the Defense Forces sometimes lose personnel and rely on counter-battery fighting. These forces that Russia has deployed, even in excessive numbers, allow it to restrain the advance of Ukrainian troops at the current stage. As a result, the Ukrainian forces must continue relying primarily on artillery rather than infantry. Recently, the number of Ukrainian forces surrounding Bakhmut has increased, and in response, Russia has also deployed more brigades and regiments to hold key positions like Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Kurdyumivka, as well as Berkhivka, and Ozaryanivka in the north. There are no active changes on the front line, although the Ukrainian Defense Forces are actively destroying the enemy. A few days ago, a video surfaced showing Russian paratroopers in Klishchiivka being targeted and neutralized by Ukrainian artillery. Given Russia’s considerable manpower in the area and the political significance of Bakhmut, it may be more appropriate to focus on destroying the enemy with long-range systems, artillery, and mortars instead of infantry movement. However, the ultimate decision lies beyond my authority. The involvement of Russian forces in Bakhmut could be a potential advantage that should be considered carefully.

Ukraine rejects US tactics

No one has ever faced such a war, such an enemy, such a system of fortifications built by the Russians. Now the Ukrainian army is testing new methods of pushing the defense line, based primarily on the work of sappers, artillery, and infantry. So far, the work is invisible, but extremely important. In a month and a half, when the enemy is completely exhausted, we will be able to move on to the US maneuvers that foreign experts and the community expected from us. However, the choice of the most effective model of combat operations currently rests with the Ukrainian Armed Forces.