The world should prepare itself for the collapse of Russia

The international community must begin to prepare itself for the disintegration of Russia into a number of smaller nation states.

I discuss this in an article for the Atlantic Council about the significance of Ukraine's victory over Russia and Russian imperialism.

"Defeat (of Putin and Russia) in Ukraine would almost certainly lead to rising demands for independence among the many non-Russian nations within today’s Russian Federation. This would present a range of security challenges for the international community similar to the issues faced following the collapse of the USSR. As setbacks in Ukraine expose Moscow’s military weakness, the disintegration of Russia into a number of smaller nation states is no longer beyond the realms of possibility; the international community should begin preparing now for such an outcome.

Other countries in the post-Soviet region would also have the opportunity to abandon pro-Kremlin positions in the wake of a Russian imperial collapse. Belarus, which is currently under unofficial Russian occupation, would be of particular importance in this process. The liberation of Belarus would create the possibility of establishing a firm and geographically coherent border along Europe’s eastern flank.

“As setbacks in Ukraine expose Moscow’s military weakness, the disintegration of Russia into a number of smaller nation states is no longer beyond the realms of possibility”

Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is widely acknowledged as the biggest threat to the global security system since the end of the Cold War. The Russian dictator is seeking to rewrite the rule book and drag the international community back to a time of naked imperial aggression. If he succeeds, the whole world will enter a menacing new era of conflict and confrontation marked by escalating militarism and closed borders.

Fortunately, there is an alternative. Ukraine has already destroyed the main imperial myth of Russia's military invincibility and demonstrated that it is more than capable of defeating Putin's forces on the battlefield. If the West maintains its support and provides Kyiv with the necessary means, there is every reason to believe that Ukraine can decisively defeat Russia.

“Ukraine has already destroyed the main imperial myth of Russia's military invincibility and demonstrated that it is more than capable of defeating Putin's forces on the battlefield.”

This would be an historic victory for Ukraine itself, but it would also represent a hugely significant win for the wider international community.

Defeat in Ukraine would leave Russia’s imperial ideology in tatters while paving the way for a lasting peace in Europe. It would help secure a rules-based geopolitical environment where smaller countries are free to determine their own fate and need not fear their larger neighbours. These goals are within reach. All that is required is unwavering support for Ukraine."

Source.

About the author: Danylo Lubkivskyi, a Ukrainian diplomat, expert on international politics.

Editorial team does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.