What Russia's Medvedev is looking for in China

First, Putin, judging by everything, promised Xi something he wasn’t planning to do anyway: not to use nuclear weapons. As for the Oreshnik option, he still keeps it on the table. Secondly, Putin will not sit down for negotiations just yet. This suits China perfectly, as it waits for Trump to approach Xi with a proposal to pressure Putin.

“The Kremlin clearly understands that an unexpected invitation for the Chinese leader to the inauguration could lead to China and the U.S. engaging in separate talks without Russia and possibly starting discussions about a "Yalta 2." That’s why Putin will try to intensify his actions: meat-grinder assaults and energy infrastructure attacks (as we saw today). Additionally, if necessary, he may resort to the Oreshnik option.”

In essence, there’s nothing new here, except that China is likely to intervene more substantively in the negotiation game soon. I emphasize: more substantively.

It’s also worth noting that China's possible involvement in these negotiations would ultimately turn Ukraine into just one of many topics on the agenda. We need to start drafting potential scenarios for developments now. However, it’s much easier to waste energy on daily squabbles and finding optimism in distant wars. Unfortunately, even at the expert level, almost no one is willing to think about this seriously.

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About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.