Azerbaijani gas in Ukraine? Possible, but with nuances

However, there is one important nuance. All the mentioned volumes of Azerbaijani gas have already been sold under long-term export contracts to Georgia, Turkey, and European companies. Deliveries to Europe are carried out via the TANAP and Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). Moreover, SOCAR is a co-owner of the latter and is primarily interested in its full utilization rather than the Ukrainian gas transmission system.  

As a result, Azerbaijan currently does not have — and will not have for at least the next 10 years — sufficient free gas volumes to transit through Ukraine in significant amounts (over 5 billion cubic meters).

Therefore, it is not possible for the Ukrainian Gas Transmission System Operator (GTSOU) to sign contracts with an Azerbaijani company for the transit of significant physical volumes of gas from Azerbaijan. If such a deal were to happen, it would be a 100% gas fraud involving the re-export of Russian gas.

However, carrying out this scheme is quite difficult due to the cooling of relations between Baku and Moscow following the recent aviation incident caused by the Russian side. Moreover, Azerbaijan has no reason to tarnish its reputation for unclear benefits. Therefore, despite the strong lobbying efforts of Fico, Orban, Russia, and some of our own "well-wishers," I consider the chances of this scheme being implemented to be minimal.

At the same time, it would be unwise for Ukraine to reject negotiations with Azerbaijan on potential gas supply contracts for small uncontracted export volumes (2-3 billion cubic meters) that may become available as Azerbaijan increases production. These volumes could be transported via Georgia and Turkey, then through the Trans-Balkan pipeline to Ukraine’s gas transmission system. The next step would be to assess the balance and decide whether to use Azerbaijani gas on the domestic market or supply it to Slovakia, Poland, or Moldova.  

P.S. Regarding assistance to Moldova — I fully support it. Let them urgently negotiate with Azerbaijan for gas supply (if they find it), secure transit through the TurkStream and the Trans-Balkan pipeline to the Ukrainian border, and Ukraine will ensure transit through its territory. However, it might be easier for Moldova to simply purchase gas at the Bulgarian hub. There is an issue with Transnistria refusing to accept it, but that is not Ukraine’s concern. The only priority is ensuring that no one drags Ukraine back into Russia’s gas entanglements.

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About the author. Volodymyr Omelchenko, Director of Energy Programs at the Razumkov Center

The editorial staff does not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.