Putin is reorienting Russians toward long war

It is with this attitude in mind that he has been talking for quite some time about the war as a social elevator (priority appointments to positions for those who won the war), about social security (widows, mothers, disabled soldiers who were injured, children), about semi-annual vacations and benefits (education, housing rent, medicine – first of all, he mentioned prostheses, which means there a lot of semi-utilized ones)...The emotional slogans of another large block of speeches are also focused on the ongoing war: about "duty to the homeland", about "the unity of the fates of the individual and the homeland" (although this is in fact indirect intimidation: "if they bend Russia, they will bend you, because there is only one fate"), about the honorable choice of volunteers, about preparing children for the fate of the mobilized soldiers. Thus, Russians began to be taught to think that war will last long, do not expect any quick victory, and do not count on conquest.

“The emotional slogans of another large block of speeches are focused on the ongoing war: "duty to the homeland, "unity of destinies of the individual and the homeland" (although this is in fact indirect intimidation: "if they bend Russia, they will bend you, because there is only one fate").”

This also includes the ongoing chatter that “everything is fine, very fine, just fine, we are getting richer and developing, especially in construction and agriculture!” It's a lie, and it's obvious to everyone, but it's aimed at creating the impression that there are enough resources for a long war without any problems.

This also includes the final blurring of the goals and objectives of the war. Specific tasks ('demilitarization' and so on) are no longer mentioned at all. First, Donbas is being overly focused on (i.e., Putin expects that the agreement, when reached, will leave him with the territories occupied as of February 24, 22, and he can say that this was the goal of the war, and the goal was successfully achieved). Secondly, long and confusing phrases were voiced, such as “your work is already a victory in the war”, “achievements are also a victory”, and so on. It seems that the ground is really being prepared to declare any outcome of the war a “victory for Russia”. Actually, as I have been predicting since spring.

We can also identify 'subject 2.5' – but it is still very vague. I'm talking about Putin's remark about the 2024 elections, which “will be held in strict accordance with the law, in compliance with all democratic procedures.”

“Either Putin hinted that he would be carried out of the Kremlin forward with his feet. Or Putin has hinted at a possible “I'm tired, I'm leaving 2” scenario.”

There is still too much room for maneuver: there are two equivalent versions.

Either Putin hinted that he would be carried out of the Kremlin forward with his feet. Or Putin has hinted at a possible “I'm tired, I'm leaving-2” scenario. That is, “democratically and in accordance with the law” power (at least nominal, as in the previous precedent with Medvedev – but, of course, he will certainly not be the heir: he drinks heavily and says too many unacceptable things) will be transferred to a successor. There will be only one requirement for the candidate: he or she must be acceptable to the West enough to engage in a dialogue with it and lift at least some of the sanctions.

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About the author. Oleksii Holobutskyi, political scientist.

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