Most likely scenario at ZNPP is not radiation accident, but economic damage to Ukraine - nuclear energy expert

He shared his opinions with Espreso TV. 

"The situation at the ZNPP remains concerning. In my opinion, the most probable scenario is not a radiation incident but rather a deliberate attempt to cause severe economic harm to Ukraine as a "gesture of goodwill" by the enemy, which they are currently preparing for. If the occupiers blow up the spent fuel storage facility, it will not have global consequences. Contamination will occur only near the storage facility itself. In the worst case, it will affect the satellite city of Enerhodar. However, this is not the enemy's goal, because such actions will not give them any military advantage," the nuclear energy expert noted. 

Ludwig Lytvynsky added that causing economic damage to Ukraine will be Russia’s main goal, as this is what they have been doing for a year, trying to disable as many energy generating facilities in Ukraine as possible.

"There is indeed a danger and it remains - the disabling of several or all power units at the ZNPP. I hope that this will not lead to radiation consequences. Most likely, electrical equipment, the turbine room, etc. will be put out of commission. The effects of a radiation accident can be managed to some extent, the challenge of compensating for a loss of 25% of Ukraine's generating capacity would be more difficult," Lytvynsky said.

The situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant

Russian forces occupied Zaporizhzhia NPP in late February 2022. Since then, there has been a constant presence of personnel and military equipment, which the invading Russian troops store in machine rooms and occasionally deploy to positions for shelling the territories of the Nikopol district in the Dnipropetrovsk region, located on the other side of the Kakhovka Reservoir.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has a monitoring mission at the station, which is supposed to ensure that the nuclear power plant is not used as a military base, that it is not attacked, and that no fire is initiated from the NPP. Power outages at the nuclear power plant occur regularly though. Occupiers began importing explosives to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant last year.

In May 2023 information emerged that the Russian forces had placed explosives in the turbine room of the  ZNPP’s fourth power unit. Additionally, the invading Russian forces have nearly completely destroyed the emergency readiness and response system at the nuclear power plant.

On June 22, the Director-General of the IAEA, after visiting ZNPP Grossi, stated that the situation at the plant is extremely unstable. On the same day, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that intelligence had received information that Russia was considering a scenario for a terrorist act at the temporarily occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which would cause a radiation release. 

The Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, stated that Russia has completed preparations for a terrorist act at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Subsequently, large-scale exercises were held in four regions of Ukraine to prepare for a possible terrorist attack on the ZNPP.

On June 30, the Main Intelligence Directorate reported that the occupying Russian forces were gradually leaving the ZNPP, and that Ukrainian employees who had signed a contract with Rosatom also received evacuation recommendations. In addition, the plant's staff received an order to blame Ukraine in any emergency situation.

At night, on July 4, Zaporizhzhia NPP lost power from the main power line, and the plant was connected to the only available backup line. The Ukrainian Armed Forces officially reported that Russian troops were preparing a provocation at ZNPP: Russians placed suspicious devices similar to explosives on the roof of power units 3 and 4.

On July 5, during a meeting of the OSCE Forum for Security Co-operation, the European Union made a statement that Russia must immediately stop actions that threaten the safety of nuclear facilities and withdraw its troops from Ukraine. 

At the same time, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said that the agency had not detected any signs of mining at ZNPP. According to him, despite this, experts are "extremely wary". Subsequently, satellite images from Planet Labs, taken on the morning of July 5, showed unknown objects on the roof of the fourth power unit of the Zaporizhzhia NPP. The General Staff had previously reported that this particular power unit had been mined.

The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, said on July 6 that the threat of a terrorist attack at the Zaporizhzhia NPP was decreasing. However, the president of Energoatom later said that about 700 Russians are currently at the Zaporizhzhia NPP. The plant is mined, and machine gun nests are placed on the roofs of the power units. Energoatom also reported that the occupiers allow specialists from the Russian Federation to work at Zaporizhzhia NPP who do not have the necessary knowledge and skills to operate the plant.

On July 7, the United States in the OSCE called on Russia to immediately withdraw its troops from ZNPP and return it to Ukrainian control, as it was concerned about reports of Russia's mining of the plant and plans for a "false flag" operation.

Also on July 7, the IAEA reported that its mission was able to inspect several facilities at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, except for the roof, but found no signs of explosives.

On July 8, Ukrainian intelligence revealed that Sergei Kiriyenko, the first deputy head of Putin's administration, had arrived at the occupied ZNPP on July 6. This visit occurred amidst the release of information regarding Russian troops mining the ZNPP.

Also, Ukrainian intelligence noted that Russian forces continue to mine the Zaporizhzhia NPP and facilities on the plant's territory. They are installing explosives and minefields.

On July 10, the mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, reported that Russian troops had begun mining critical infrastructure in the occupied Zaporizhzhia region. According to him, minefields have been set up in technical rooms and machine rooms at the Zaporizhzhia NPP.