ISW report: assessing recent impact of significant losses in Russian aviation

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.

According to the Ukrainian Armed Forces Air Force, on the evening of March 2, Russian aviation activity in eastern Ukraine came to a complete halt after Ukrainian forces shot down two Russian Su-34 aircraft.

Colonel Yuriy Ihnat, the official representative of the Ukrainian Air Force, also stated that the decrease in Russian aviation activity persisted on March 3rd.

It is noted that Russian forces have lost 15 aircraft since February 17th. According to the Institute, the Russian army likely possesses around 300 various Sukhoi fighter aircraft.

Meanwhile, previous aircraft losses prompted Russian forces to temporarily reduce aviation activity across the entire territory of Ukraine for significant periods of time, although the duration of the current 'pause' remains unclear.

Experts at ISW suggest that Russian forces may come to terms with the increasing losses in aviation and continue to attempt strikes with guided aerial bombs to support Russian offensive operations.

“Russian forces appeared to tolerate an increased rate of aviation losses in recent weeks in order to conduct glide bomb strikes in support of ongoing Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine, and the Russian command may decide in the future to assume the risk of continued aviation losses in pursuit of further tactical gains,” analysts emphasize.

• Russian occupying forces are willing to risk losing aircraft to maintain a tactical advantage on the Avdiivka front.