Artillery shortages may drive Russia's potential deal with North Korea

The Washington Post writes that a deal with North Korea, which has substantial artillery production capabilities, could provide a source of compatible legacy artillery ammunition outside of Russia.

In the fiercely contested southern regions of Ukraine, “it’s a gunfight … heavily dependent on artillery,” as stated by White House national security spokesperson John Kirby during a press briefing on Wednesday. Kirby's comments imply that the supply of artillery ammunition could be a significant factor motivating Kim Jong Un's visit to Russia.

However, Russia’s extensive use of artillery comes at a significant cost. Western estimates indicate that Russia fired approximately 11 million rounds in Ukraine in the previous year. It is estimated that they may expend an additional 7 million rounds this year. Given current production capacity, Russia can only manufacture up to 2 million rounds annually.

There have been reports from within the Russian military about shortages, including Yevgeny Prigozhin, the late leader of the Wagner Group, who complained about a lack of shells on the front lines near Bakhmut. He claimed that his troops were receiving only 800 out of the 80,000 shells needed daily.

With the shortfall in domestic production, Russia may turn to imports. However, there are limited sources to which Moscow can turn for supply. Russia primarily uses 152mm caliber rounds, but many of its former European partners are now unwilling to sell their stockpiles.

North Korea, which acquired licenses for Soviet weaponry in the 1960s, rapidly expanded its arms production capabilities. It not only met its substantial domestic demand following the Korean War armistice but also engaged in international trade, even after the collapse of the Soviet Union. North Korea's artillery production is substantial, and it may possess a considerable stockpile of compatible legacy artillery ammunition outside of Russia.

Read also: Weapons exchanged for food: expert on Kim Jong Un’s visit to Russia

While the exact quantity North Korea could supply remains unknown, it may fall short in terms of quality. The country, under sanctions and isolation, has primarily focused on its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, leaving its Soviet-era artillery ammunition largely unattended. A 2010 analysis of North Korea's barrage on South Korea's Yeonpyeong Island found that a significant portion of the shells failed to reach their target or did not detonate.

Putin has hinted at the possibility of collaboration with North Korea, despite U.N. sanctions. The initial U.N. Security Council resolution from 2006 bans the export of North Korean large-caliber artillery systems and related materials, with Russia's support.

“Russia may have already crossed the line. The United States said last year that Russia had already taken some deliveries of artillery ammunition from North Korea, though in that case Pyongyang was accused of sending only “thousands” of shells in what would be a comparatively small trade. Russia has also taken deliveries of Iranian-produced drones, which Western powers say violates an arms embargo placed on that country,” the Washington Post writes.

The specifics of any potential arms deal between Russia and North Korea are uncertain, but it may include modern weapons technology or increased economic cooperation. For Putin, such an arrangement may be worthwhile, as Russia appears to be settling for a prolonged conflict in Ukraine, hoping that Kyiv and its allies will tire first. Western officials have been surprised by Russia's persistent efforts to circumvent sanctions to sustain its arms production, and an artillery deal with North Korea would align with this pattern, reflecting determination or desperation, depending on one's perspective.

More details on cooperation between Russia and the DPRK

Earlier, White House spokesman John Kirby said that talks between Russia and the DPRK on military cooperation were "actively progressing."

In July, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited the DPRK and met with his North Korean counterpart, among others.

In early August, the White House accused Russia of trying to buy munitions from the DPRK.

Oleksandr Musienko, head of the Center for Military Legal Studies, said that Russia has problems with the military and industrial complex, so Moscow is turning to the DPRK and Iran for help. According to him, Ukraine must be prepared for North Korea to supply weapons to Russia.

On August 18, it became known that US President Joe Biden was ready to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un "without preconditions" to discuss the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

On August 31, the United States imposed sanctions on two Russian citizens over the development of weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles for the DPRK.

On September 4, The New York Times reported, citing US and allied officials, that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un plans to visit Russia in September and meet with Vladimir Putin to discuss military cooperation.

On September 11, the North Korean leader traveled by train to Vladivostok to meet with Russian leader Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin confirmed Kim Jong Un's visit to Russia "in the coming days".

On September 14, CNN wrote that South Korea has expressed deep concern about possible military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow after the meeting between Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin in Russia