US assistance to Ukraine. Narrow window of opportunity

A narrow window of opportunity, to be honest. The saga of the $60 billion arms and finance deal has been going on for almost six months.

Voice of America correspondent Ostap Yarysh writes about three possible scenarios. Let me quote:

Option 1: the House of Representatives votes on the aid for Ukraine, Israel, etc. in the form that was passed in the Senate and as requested by the White House. About $60 billion are included for Kyiv. This is the fastest option. If passed, the bill will go to Biden for signature.

“This is the option the White House insists on. POLITICO writes that the president's team is privately working with Johnson to get him to agree to 60 billion for Ukraine - and if MAGA Republicans want to dismiss the speaker because of this, Democrats will help him keep his seat.”

Option 2: Consideration of a new bill with amendments (here Johnson suggested that Ukraine could receive aid in the form of a loan or credit). This is a longer way to go, because then the Senate would have to consider the document again and we remember how difficult it was to get the votes the first time. It is also unknown whether the White House would support this option.

However, Mike Johnson's team has not yet presented any specific developments in the new bill. There are various options for what this loan might look like. One of the proposals that the speaker has previously voiced is to use the frozen assets of Russian oligarchs to pay for the aid.

Option 3: Contrary to his promises, Mike Johnson again postpones the vote on aid for Ukraine indefinitely. In this case, congressmen can consider this issue bypassing the speaker. To do this, 218 signatures are required in the House of Representatives. Currently, there are 191.”

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As a person who has heard a lot about current American politics and its "purity" in recent months, I'm betting on a hybrid of the third and then the second option. And on further delaying consideration of this issue in the House of Representatives.

However, I will be happy to be wrong, because I do not yet see any special points of contact between the two teams (Republicans and Democrats), which are fully engaged in an internal struggle and where criticizing the actions of the opponent is the first and foremost law of the election genre.

But there is also some interesting news that may adjust the attitude to the decision on Ukraine. For example, the visit of David Cameron, the British Foreign Secretary, to the United States, where he is to talk about Ukraine with Trump.

Source 

About the author. Viktor Shlinchak, Chairman of the Board of the Institute of World Policy, Head of the Glavkom News Agency.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.