U.S. elections: candidates ready to deny defeat

This applies equally, if not more so, to the Ukrainian authorities. The strategy seems to be to get through to the American elections, and then we’ll see what happens. 

However, based on some of President Zelenskyy's statements, especially after his meeting with Trump along with Yermak, it appears that the Ukrainian President’s Office is hoping for a Trump victory rather than one by Harris. But that is my subjective impression.

Well, let me share another of my subjective impressions — my expectation regarding the outcome of the elections in America.

It has long been no secret that Donald Trump and his team are preparing not to recognize the result if it turns out unfavorable for them. The Harris team is also saying they are preparing for such a scenario, in which Trump refuses to concede defeat. I hope they truly are ready, as current President Biden mentioned this back in August, well before the vote.

And this is not surprising, because Trump's electoral strategy is primarily built on mobilizing his core voter base. His rude remarks directed at his opponent are not intended to win new supporters or sway undecided voters. The goal of such tactics is to energize his followers, who are fine with such rudeness, and to provoke his opponents into an inappropriate reaction. This almost succeeded when Biden made his remark about the “deplorability” of Trump supporters. But Biden is not Harris…

Harris’s strategy is focused on uniting, not dividing, America, so she cannot afford to make harsh moves or statements. In the final stage of the campaign, she appealed to moderate Republicans, saying she would be the president of all American citizens. Trump's strategy, however, is different: he relies on the votes of those who had never voted before his appearance — apolitical Americans who became interested in politics precisely because of Trump's flamboyance.

But the paradox of Trump’s campaign is that on one hand, he claims he is already winning against Harris, while on the other, he is simultaneously preparing public opinion for not accepting his defeat. Such a contradiction has a negative subconscious effect on voters. It suggests a lack of confidence, and more importantly, doubts the ability of American democracy to accurately count the results.

To be honest, there is a noticeable influence of Russian political strategists in Trump's approach, even though Manafort is supposedly no longer on his team. But maybe there is something we don't know…

So, both teams are preparing for the scenario where Trump does not accept his defeat. They are programming themselves for this outcome, thereby bringing it closer. Thus, my forecast is not based on candidate ratings or an analysis of swing states, where it will be an electoral lottery. It is based on societal expectations.

Harris will win the vote count. Trump and his team will challenge the results. But how exactly, in what way, and most importantly, how it will all end — no one knows. We are carefully watching this show.

Source

About the author. Volodymyr Horbach, political analyst at the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation, expert on Ukraine's foreign and domestic policy.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.