Traditional wars are becoming a thing of the past

His logical but somewhat contradictory arguments shed light on the half-hearted efforts of Ukraine's allies in ramping up arms production.

What’s the difference between a global power and a regional one like Ukraine?

It’s that the U.S. sees a tangled web of conflicts, each unique in its own way. Genocide in Rwanda. Civil war in Syria. The rise of non-state militant groups like Hezbollah and ISIS. Israel’s long conflict with the Arab world. Drug cartels in Mexico. And a whole list of countries like Iran, North Korea, and China.

For example, McFate questions why the U.S. views the drug cartel wars in Mexico as mere gang violence. In his view, this is a new form of warfare that, in terms of casualties, surpasses the U.S. wars in Iraq or Afghanistan.

Each of these conflicts demands its own tactics. And those tactics need funding and focus.

In the book, McFate argues that traditional wars are a relic of the past. He suggests that unconventional warfare now dominates the world stage — something that big powers are ill-equipped to handle. He points to the U.S. losing wars in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan despite its technological superiority and arsenal.

In his view, the U.S. should invest less in aircraft carriers and F-35s, and more in flexible, effective tools like information warfare, propaganda, and, yes, the greater use of mercenaries.

Meanwhile, each party involved in these unique conflicts views their war as the most important one. For instance, when the West began to back Ukraine actively, many Third World countries felt left out. Why, they ask, are their conflicts ignored while Ukraine's war draws global attention?

On one hand, it’s good that Ukraine’s war isn’t being overlooked, like so many others. But on the other hand, the existence of these other conflicts prevents the West from fully focusing on our crisis.

Why should the West bother producing artillery shells if traditional wars are over?

Because for the past 30 years, the U.S. has lived under the illusion that it's the unchallenged superpower, with no real competitors left. During this sheltered period, an entire generation of experts and politicians grew up without ever considering the possibility of a traditional war. That one day, their country might face a foe with similar economic and military power.

Incidentally, the British Empire once fell into this same trap. After years of dealing with tribal skirmishes in Africa and weak nations in Asia, they were completely unprepared for a full-scale continental war with Germany.

Source

About the author: Pavlo Vernivskyi, economist, expert 

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.