What has Putin not said?

1. Everyone was waiting for Putin to define the results of the year-long war and strategic goals for the future. But most of the speech was about socio-economic and humanitarian development, which contained no news. Therefore, when analyzing the speech, it is not what was said, but what was not said that should be determined.

2. A year ago, Putin said that he was going to instantly destroy the "clown, drug addict regime" and "denazify and demilitarize" Ukraine. That is, the goal was announced. Many times Putin stated that "the special operation is going according to a previously approved plan." A year has passed, and it is obvious that the goals stated by Putin have not been achieved, and the strategy has led to defeats. But there was not a single word about new or old goals and strategies.

“The goals stated by Putin have not been fulfilled, and the strategy has led to defeats. But there was not a single word about new or old goals and strategies.”

3. Putin did not mention the number of human losses in the war. Although the number of casualties is a key factor that determines the effectiveness of actions and the prospects of the war. Since March 25, 2022, the Russian authorities have never reported any losses. According to Western estimates, all the wars waged by the USSR and Russia after World War II combined did not cause as many casualties as one year of Putin's war in Ukraine.

4. No assessments of the expediency and effectiveness of Russia's military actions over the year – were there any defeats, what was the reaction to these defeats, who is responsible?

5. Regarding the war, Putin said only two specific things. First, every six months, every Russian soldier must receive a 14-day vacation. That is, the timing of the war has not been announced, but it will be long, for years. Secondly, Putin spoke about the army development program for 2021-2025, making changes, strengthening investments and benefits in the defense industry for rapid rearmament.

“The terms of the war have not been announced, but it will be long, for years.”

6. On the foreign policy front, Putin announced that he would stop participating in the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. This is a symbolic step to break with the West, which in fact has already taken place. Putin said that Russia will invest in the accession of the occupied territories of Ukraine to Russia.

Conclusions:

1. Putin will not declare war on Ukraine and the West. Putin is creating a situation of permanent martial law in Russia to absolutize his power, and this martial law is not tied to any goals or strategy, it can last for many years. His doctrine can be called "enemies everywhere".

“Putin is creating an environment of permanent martial law in Russia to absolutize his power, and this martial law is not tied to any goals or strategy.”

2. Putin is going to conduct active hostilities for a long time, with significant losses of Russian troops, so information about Russian casualties is the most painful for him. He is ready to talk about the conflict with the West, even about the fall in GDP, but not about the victims that resulted from his decisions. He fears responsibility not for the lives of citizens, but for the public recognition of his military weakness and inability to succeed in aggression.

3. For Putin, it is the controllability of the army that matters, not its effectiveness. Because in a permanent war, power will not change, but rather be concentrated. Putin has no criteria for evaluating combat operations from a military point of view, so he does not need to know the state of affairs in the army as long as the army remains manageable. And the loss of personnel is not a problem for a totalitarian country. Critical losses will become a problem for the Russian command only if it starts causing problems with mobilization.

Source

About the author: Yurii Butusov, journalist, soldier of Ukraine's Armed Forces. 

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.