The war returns to Russia's doorstep

Ukrainian drones are changing the situation by targeting military sites in Moscow and its region. Russians now realize that the war has reached their doorstep.

The cost of war is rising for Russia and its elites. The once safe havens like Rublyovka, Barvikha, and Zhukovka are no longer secure for those who only watched military actions on TV. Despite months of assurance that Russia would triumph, they now witness a different reality. Their comfortable lives within estate walls are ending.

Initially, Russian oligarchs and the less wealthy were distant from Ukraine's war. But with Ukrainian drones flying to Moscow, this dynamic changes. War's reality is directly approaching them.

Russians, who enjoyed privileges, might soon experience firsthand the impact of the war. Small explosions, previously distant, now become their reality. Ukrainians are dismantling the propaganda illusion that Moscow is invulnerable to Ukraine's counteractions.

Russia's leadership will soon recognize that they are in an unwinnable war. Each day of its continuance erodes the fabricated state's foundation.

Putin's actions in Ukraine have caused immense damage to Russia's image and economy. This far surpasses what any Kremlin adversaries could have achieved. Russia's global standing is critically weakened, with no chance of restoration.

Gradually but inevitably, the war's focus shifts to Russia. Strikes on Russian military infrastructure eliminate the population's distance from the Ukrainian conflict. The threat now encroaches on them.

“Perhaps when Russians experience even a fraction of the suffering they imposed on Ukrainians, they'll comprehend Putin's harmful actions against a neighboring nation fighting for independence.”

This war isn't a game. Ukraine requires time to reclaim its lands, facing challenging fortified positions. Russia resorts to its typical tactics: digging trenches and setting minefields. The message is clear – regaining lost territory demands prying it from Russia's unyielding grasp.

However, Ukraine has already breached the initial line of defense on two of its fronts. Ukrainian forces persist in their offensive efforts to hinder Russia from amassing reserves, launching attacks, and obliterating enemy ammunition storage. Over time, these actions will accumulate and yield results.

The prospect cannot be dismissed that our military leadership might choose to focus on endeavors with minimal losses, like regaining control of Crimea. The paradox in this scenario is that the Kremlin least anticipated such a turn of events. When this materializes, reclaiming other Ukrainian territories could occur at a swifter pace.

It's important to recall the lessons of World War II, which demonstrated the impact of neutralizing enemy naval fleets. Disabling the Russian fleet renders Russia vulnerable and creates difficulties in maintaining its hold over the occupied Crimean peninsula. Putin lacks the capacity to swiftly replace decommissioned naval vessels. Raising the cost of war to an unbearable level for the dictator, rendering its continuation unfeasible, becomes crucial.

“However, it's imperative to consider the perils of Putin's own predicament. His defeat might entail not only the loss of power but also his life. Thus, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict essentially represents a struggle to preserve the dominance of a tyrant and his illicit regime.”

Unfortunately for him, the tide isn't in his favor: the Armed Forces have substantially neutralized Russian artillery, Moscow is resorting to deploying 60-year-old tanks from storage, and the Russian Federation's casualties surpass those of Ukraine by a significant margin. The Ukrainian military is gradually advancing through minefields in the temporarily held southern regions. Those acquainted with military matters and geopolitics comprehend that the liberation of Ukrainian territories won't transpire swiftly or effortlessly. Nevertheless, Ukraine's chosen strategy is yielding positive outcomes, and the ongoing counteroffensive is inching closer to liberating all Ukrainian territories.

This is a prolonged effort, not a swift sprint. The Russian static defense has proven ineffective at halting the Ukrainian advance. This is despite the existing air cover imbalance, an evident shortage of tanks, and the Armed Forces' heightened need for long-range artillery.

“Russia's cunning invasion into Ukraine stands as its most significant geopolitical misstep in history. Moreover, Moscow's alignment with communist China casts doubt on the future existence of the Russian Federation within its current boundaries. Putin's relentless pursuit to expand Russia through Ukraine could ultimately lead to the downfall of the Moscow regime. The indomitable spirit, immense courage, and adeptness of Ukrainian soldiers outshine the invaders' designs on annexing foreign territories.”

Patience is now crucial. Russian forces have had ample months to construct defensive structures along the front lines. Moscow anticipated Ukraine's eventual counteroffensive and readied itself. Nonetheless, Ukrainian forces persist in targeting supply routes, ammo caches, and bridges, inflicting substantial damage on the occupying forces. As the Russian troops on the front lines experience shortages of ammunition, food, and water, the prospects of Moscow's terrorist forces either perishing, surrendering, or rebelling against Putin become more likely, sooner or later.

Today, war is returning to Russians' homes, surprising those who never expected it to reach them. The sight of drones above Moscow is likely just the start of this unchangeable process. Following this, cities like St. Petersburg, Tver, Tula, Tambov, Kaluga, Bryansk, and others in the European part of what's still known as Russia could face similar situations.

“Unless Russians take collective action and demand President Putin to withdraw troops from Ukrainian territories and halt this violent conflict, incidents like the Sergiev Posad factory explosions could become regular occurrences across Russia.”

The upcoming targets might include the arms manufacturing facility in Tula, the Smolensk Aviation Plant responsible for radar and missile systems, the Votkin Plant producing ballistic missiles in Udmurtia, and the major arms manufacturer "Kalashnikov," comprising entities like Izhevsk Mechanical Plant and Zala Aero, a drone developer and producer. Ukraine's drones will find many relevant military sites in Russia.

It's essential for Moscow and Russia to experience what Kyiv and Ukraine have been going through. Ukraine must persist in striking enemy military sites with drones; otherwise, Russians may fail to grasp that this war involves both sides, and they're within the reach of our weaponry.

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About the author. Viktor Kaspruk, journalist.

The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.