Russia's year-long push for Pokrovsk shows no success: military observer explains why

Military and political observer Oleksandr Kovalenko explained why Russia has not been able to capture Ukraine's Pokrovsk, despite making it a military priority, on his Telegram page.

According to Kovalenko, the Pokrovsk issue kept Russian generals restless throughout 2024, and they planned to capture the city last year. However, due to obvious changes, the assault on Pokrovsk and the start of urban battles were postponed to the end of 2024 or early 2025, just in time for Donald Trump's inauguration, with the city being reduced to rubble, allowing Russians to boast about the destruction as proof of their "superiority."

The Russian command initially planned to encircle Pokrovsk, but for this, at least two conditions had to be met: cutting off the Kurakhove salient and establishing a stable line of battle with secure flanks.

As Kovalenko noted earlier, in order to encircle Pokrovsk, the Russian forces need the potential of a grouping of at least 150,000 soldiers, while the entire Pokrovsk-Kurakhove direction has just over 100,000. That is, even if all the troops are withdrawn from the Kurakhove protrusion and concentrated in the Pokrovsk direction to carry out the operation to encircle the city, they will not be enough to realize the plan.

With the half of February 2025 behind, the right and left flanks near Pokrovsk have not been formed, and there is no basic encirclement. A stable line of battle is absent, and the Kurakhove salient has not been cut off. Meanwhile, Russia's 55th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the 41st Operational Tactical Group lost combat effectiveness and was moved to the second echelon for recovery, replaced by the 15th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the 2nd Operational Tactical Group, which was specifically designated for urban combat in Pokrovsk.

But things get even more interesting from here on out, the observer says.

While the 90th Tank Division desperately fights to capture another forest strip at the cost of 2-3 battalions on the Kurakhove salient, the command of the Russian operational group made interesting decisions. Specifically, they decided to move the 8th Operational Tactical Group, including the 20th Motorized Infantry Division and the 150th Motorized Infantry Division, northward, to bypass Kostiantynivka from the west. In other words, from the Toretsk agglomeration, it's 12 kilometers, and from Keramik, it's over 22 kilometers. Logically, a quick breakthrough is not expected.

What does that imply?

To put it simply: even with this redistribution of forces and resources, the Russian operational group remains incapable of achieving its objectives in Pokrovsk or Kostiantynivka within the desired timeframe. Yes, they will push forward — losing a company, two, or even three per square kilometer — but their goals will still remain out of reach. It’s a pointless expenditure of resources, merely for the sake of proving they can. Like burning a hundred-dollar bill on TikTok to impress impressionable minds, the author compares.

“In essence, Ukrainian forces continue to hold their defense, wearing down Russian reflections and, from a military science perspective, provide no opportunity for the Russian operational group to put us in a disadvantageous position as of now,” the observer writes.

The redeployment of Russian forces toward the Kramatorsk direction might appear concerning, but in reality, under the current conditions, it merely scatters their resources — an advantage for Ukraine. “Let them keep ramming into a new obstacle while the previously prioritized front not only grants Ukrainian forces a respite but potentially something even greater. The Russian operational group is drained, and that’s precisely what we are capitalizing on,” the author believes.