What is Russia's goal in constantly terrorizing Ukraine with drone strikes?

Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko explores the goals of Russia, the capabilities of these drones, and how Ukraine is countering them in a joint project between OBOZ.UA and Information Resistance.

Multitasking strikes

It’s a common misconception that drones are only used for attacking. While their primary function is indeed to strike, their capabilities extend far beyond that.

When it comes to the destructive power of kamikaze drones, several versions of the Shahed-136 with different warheads have been identified:

• Basic Iranian 50 kg fragmentation-fuzed warhead – used in early models of kamikaze drones.
• BST-52 – a Russian thermobaric warhead weighing 52 kg.
• BSF-50 (MSNI 37.364) – a 50 kg Russian fragmentation warhead.
• A Russian 50 kg fragmentation warhead with incendiary effects, designed to cause large fires.
• TBBCH-50(M) – a more advanced Russian thermobaric warhead weighing 50 kg.

These variations demonstrate the range of tools Russia is using in its drone strikes, each designed for different types of destruction, from fires to widespread damage.

Each of these warheads has a specific purpose and presents a threat, but thermobaric warheads are the most dangerous to civilians. While their impact is less severe in open spaces, it becomes much more deadly in confined areas.

In other words, if a thermobaric drone hits a residential building, the effect of the warhead is amplified in the enclosed space, posing a lethal threat to anyone inside. However, all drones - whether kamikaze or decoy - serve multiple purposes at once.

Reconnaissance

While in the air, drones also carry out reconnaissance, gathering information on air defense positions and mobile fire units. This intelligence allows Russia to adjust future raids and prepare large-scale missile attacks.

So, the reconnaissance aspect is a key part of these raids. The more drones deployed, the more data Russia can collect and analyze.

This reconnaissance also helps identify the most effective routes for bypassing air defenses and mobile fire groups, ensuring the drones' best chances of survival in Ukrainian airspace.

For example, on the night of November 10, the drone attack lasted for 11.5 hours. Some drones flew along their routes for hours, and there was no chance to shoot them down because of the complex paths they took. These elaborate routes are the result of lessons learned from previous attacks, where information about air defenses, mobile fire groups, and the terrain was gathered and analyzed.

In addition to the Shahed-136 kamikaze drones and decoy drones like Gerbera and Parody, Russian forces also use reconnaissance drones like the Orlan-10, ZALA, SuperCam, and others. However, these drones are limited to gathering intelligence and do not carry out the other tasks of the kamikaze drones.

Distraction and exhaustion

One of the key goals of these raids is to overwhelm air defense systems and tire them out. Tracking more than a hundred targets at once is a huge strain on the air defense system. When mobile fire teams can't intercept a target from the ground, air defense missile systems (SAMs) have to be activated, wasting precious ammunition.

Terror

Russian drones are used to terrorize civilians, and this is no secret. It's something that's constantly discussed on TV, by officials, and experts, and it's shared with Western audiences through various international platforms. But what exactly is the strategy behind terrorizing civilians? Is it simply killing for the sake of killing? Not exactly.

Terrorizing civilians is a tactic that Russia inherited from the USSR. Back in Soviet times, terror against ordinary people was not just a tactic but also a strategic element of warfare.

In other words, it involved deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure and killing people to create panic, destabilize the socio-political situation, and put psychological pressure on the government by exploiting the civilian population. The goal was to force the authorities into surrendering or negotiating peace.

This strategy involved war crimes and could even be considered a form of genocide. The idea was to create chaos in the civilian population, stir up protests in the rear regions, and force the government into peace talks or capitulation to the enemy.

For Russia, it’s crucial to keep the Ukrainians under constant stress and pressure. The goal is not necessarily to hit specific targets - whether military, civilian, infrastructure, or residential - but simply to provoke air alerts, make drones buzz over cities, and engage air defenses.

The moral and psychological exhaustion of Ukrainians is a key part of Russia’s strategy to break the will of the people and force Ukraine to surrender.

Countermeasures

When discussing the threats posed by both combat and decoy drone strikes, it's impossible to ignore the issue of countermeasures. While this topic has been covered extensively, it’s still worth revisiting.

So, what does Ukraine need to effectively counter drone attacks? First and foremost, it needs more short- and medium-range air defenses - both surface-to-air missile systems and anti-aircraft guns.

It is important for Ukraine to have not only the well-known Patriot and SAMP/T SAMs, but also short-range air defense systems like Crotal, L3Harris VAMPIRE, and Alvis Stormer. Ukraine's partners have stockpiles of recently decommissioned systems, such as Roland and MIM-72A/M48 Chaparral SAMs, which could be extremely useful.

In areas with complex terrain, it’s not just mobile fire groups that are needed, as they won’t be able to reach certain areas and intercept aerial targets. Instead, air defense systems or aviation assets are key. 

However, Ukraine's partners have been slow to respond to its requests. Of course, it’s also important for Ukraine to develop its own methods of interception, which could be more cost-effective and functional than traditional SAMs or fire groups. One potential solution is the use of interceptor drones, which could play a key role in addressing this problem.

Currently, we are also seeing highly effective electronic warfare (EW) against Russian drones. The success rate of countermeasures - whether in terms of drones being shot down or lost in certain areas, or even flying off into Russia or Belarus - is impressive. However, these efforts alone are not enough to fully suppress the threat or stop hours of terrorizing Ukraine’s rear regions.

Many of the challenges Ukraine faces in this area come down to decisions made by its partners. Ukraine has the potential to close its airspace and significantly reduce the threat of mass Russian drone raids, but it is limited by the capabilities provided to it, primarily by partners. If the pace and volume of support don’t change, Russian forces will continue to terrorize Ukraine's rear areas - and this will only get worse.

• Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military and political observer of the Information Resistance group, believes that Russia can further increase the range of the guided aerial bombs.