Russian troops target Kyiv with Kh-101 produced in late 2023

Defense Express has learned from its own sources that during the January 2 massive missile attack on Ukraine, Russian troops launched a Kh-101 missile manufactured in the fourth quarter of 2023.

This fact indicates that such a long pause in massive missile attacks on Ukraine was caused by Russia's efforts to accumulate a stockpile of air assets necessary for a large-scale attack campaign. 

A notable detail is the sophistication in concealing the origin of these missiles. Usually, the time of manufacture of a Russian missile is indicated by a ten-digit serial number that is applied to all parts of the missile's structure. This marking also allows to find out the origin of the components for the missile system, so, for example, in January 2023, a specific method of "disguising" Russian Kh-101s was recorded - Russian forces would simply erase the serial numbers with a grinder.

In contrast to previous methods of erasing serial numbers, Russia now employs a more intricate approach by using serial numbers that are challenging to decipher. For instance, the serial number on the downed Kh-101 starts with "315," indicating missiles manufactured around 2023, and "263" signifies Kh-101 missiles manufactured after 2020. The reference to the fourth quarter of 2023 is embedded in the number 9, requiring a subtraction of "5" from the seventh digit in the serial number to determine the quarter of manufacture.

This manipulation of serial numbers suggests a deliberate effort by the Russians to obscure the origin of components used in the production of cruise missiles, particularly those deployed in strikes against Ukraine.

While the use of a Q4 2023-manufactured Kh-101 doesn't necessarily indicate a depletion of the Russian missile arsenal, it does highlight that the current production rate is a significant factor affecting the intervals between potential future strikes using similar missiles. Monitoring and understanding the production pace of these missiles will be crucial for assessing and preparing for future missile attacks by the Russians.