Espreso. Global
OPINION

Why is detention of Shoigu's deputy bad for Ukraine?

24 April, 2024 Wednesday
20:55

Ivanov's arrest is a demonstration of the new rules of the game, which haven't yet crystallized, but are already being written during the game

client/title.list_title

1. A detention of this level could not have been carried out without Putin's approval, and the decision itself could not have been initiated without Patrushev's direct involvement. Unfortunately, the version that I expressed more than a month ago that a "mini-coup" took place in Russia, as a result of which fanatical hawks won over mere hawks in an intraspecific struggle, is confirmed. And now it is they who are dictating the agenda.

2. Ivanov's arrest is a demonstration of the new rules of the game, which haven't yet crystallized, but are already being written during the game. So far, we can say that the new rules definitely contain the following points:

  • all previous agreements are canceled, everything starts from scratch;
  • the FSB is moving from covering up corruption to controlling corruption;
  • loyalty is no longer enough, something more is needed (no one understands what exactly).

3. It is still difficult to predict how the flywheel of repression will turn. They may stop with Ivan (similar to the Khodorkovsky case, when after his arrest everyone understood everything) or, on the contrary, they may detain several dozen more high-ranking officials.

I repeat: this is not important. The main thing is a complete change in the rules of coexistence in the elites.

4. The opposition, unfortunately, again fails to meet the expectations of the people. The statements of the FBK that the authorities listened to them are ridiculous. In fact, we should have expected the opposition to say that this is not a fight against corruption, but an imitation and a distraction from the deterioration of life. Or something similar.

5. For Ukraine, this means that Patrushev and Ushakov's ideas about prolonging the war until the Yalta-2 conference are now completely dominant.

Amid this , it is worth paying special attention to the sharp intensification of Russian activity on the Chinese direction and two important decisions: Norilsk Nickel has decided to move its copper plant to China, and Gazprom is giving a 28% discount to Chinese companies until 2027 (both decisions could not but be authorized by the Kremlin).

China has recently begun a certain drift toward possible negotiations, and the Russians are trying to reverse this trend. This will determine whether there will be a theoretical possibility of negotiations in 2024.

Source

About the author: Vadym Denysenko, political scientist.

The editors don't always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.

Tags:
Read also:
  • News
2024, Sunday
14 July
11:00
Trump shot in ear at campaign rally. Zelenskyy reacts
10:25
Russia loses 1,320 soldiers, 46 artillery systems, 7 tanks in one day of war in Ukraine
2024, Saturday
13 July
20:00
Number of volunteers in army rises: 3rd Assault Brigade on how new law affected mobilization
19:40
Crimeans should prepare for military operation to liberate peninsula from Russia - Nariman Dzhelal
19:16
Russian army continues its offensive: 24th brigade reports on situation in Chasiv Yar
18:56
Exclusive
Diplomat Bezsmertnyi lists Ukraine's main lobbyists in NATO
18:34
Updated
At least 2 people killed, 22 wounded as Russia attacks village near Kharkiv twice
18:12
Exclusive
Take ratio of one to three: military expert on irretrievable losses on Ukraine's part
17:48
Exclusive
Putin's calculation is to hold out until November - Feygin
17:20
Exclusive
"Rabid dogs are shot, there is no other recipe": diplomat Bezsmertnyi on possible talks with Russia
17:02
Poland considers Kyiv's proposal to shoot down Russian missiles over Ukraine - Sikorski
16:28
Russian invaders kill two civilian women, wound two more people in Kherson district
16:01
OPINION
Russia threatens to destroy Kyiv hydroelectric station
15:49
Updated
Russian attacks kill 6 civilians, injure at least 22 others in Donetsk region on July 12
15:41
Ukraine has managed to return 161 civilians from Russian captivity since 2014
15:15
Russians are losing interest in Ukraine war - military intelligence
14:50
Ukrainian army knock Russian troops out of village in Kharkiv region: DeepState reports on situation at front
14:26
Review
Controversy over Storm Shadow use, new US military aid package. Weekly military review
14:01
OPINION
Oleksandr Kovalenko
Russia’s threat to destroy Kyiv HPP, Kaniv reservoir dams is not just blackmail
13:35
Exclusive
Military expert explains aim of Russian statements about provocations at Kyiv, Kaniv dams
13:10
Exclusive
Russian troops change tactics near Toretsk: start digging tunnels to get behind Ukrainian positions
12:41
Ukraine to receive 30 F-16 aircraft from Belgium by 2028
12:10
Russian missiles, drones contain components from 19 countries - Ukraine's Prosecutor General
11:41
149 combat clashes occur at frontline over last day: Ukrainian army repels most attacks in Pokrovsk sector
11:15
"Ukrainian special services plan to kill Zaluzhnyi": Russian fakes for July 12
10:50
Russia reports UAV attack on Rostov region: oil depot on fire
10:26
Russian army loses 8 tanks, 58 artillery systems, over 1,100 troops per day
2024, Friday
12 July
21:30
Review
Victorious news of 870th day of war: Russia loses record number of troops, explosions reported in Mariupol
20:47
Ukraine gathers evidence on Russia’s mine use against civilians
20:41
Updated
Russia scares Ukrainians with blowing up Kyiv, Kaniv dams. Ukraine reacts
20:30
Belarus prepares false flag operations on Ukraine's border amid military drills with China
20:10
Exclusive
Situation in Kharkiv region is close to stabilization - Achilles Battalion commander
19:50
Ukraine's GDP grows by 4.1% in first half of 2024 despite negative factors
19:24
94 clashes occur at front, Pokrovsk direction remains hottest - Ukraine's General Staff
18:59
Russia spreads fake about Ukraine's intention to use chemical weapons in Donetsk, Kherson sectors
18:35
Updated
Polish Sejm recognizes deportation of Crimean Tatar people in 1944 as genocide
18:15
Exclusive
Russian troops lose all their equipment trying to advance in Lyman sector - Ukraine's 96th Battalion
17:56
Norway: Ukraine has right to strike at Russian territory to defend itself
17:35
Exclusive
Russia's tactics for launching Kalibr missile from Caspian Sea: expert names main dangers
16:57
OPINION
There are no perfect sanctions
More news