Ukraine's ability to shoot down Russian aircraft can't compensate for critical air defense deficit - ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.

Military analysts believe that the ability of Russian aircraft to operate at a depth of more than 100 km in Ukrainian airspace near the front line without suffering significant losses indicates that Ukrainian air defenses in the area are currently insufficient to deter or prevent Russian aircraft from operating on the front line.

Ukraine's ability to conduct long-range strikes to shoot down Russian strategic aircraft engaged in combat operations could temporarily limit Russian air operations, as was achieved as a result of the previous shooting down of tactical aircraft, experts write.

"This Ukrainian strike capability, however, is unable to compensate for Ukraine’s critical air defense shortages across the theater," the Institute notes.

The analysts add that the Ukrainian forces still must husband materiel and prioritize allocating its limited air defense assets to some areas of the theater over others at great expense, allowing Russian aviation to support more consistent and rapid gains on the ground, including near Chasiv Yar.

• On the morning of April 19, a Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber firing Kh-22/Kh-32 missiles at Ukraine crashed in the Stavropol region of the Russian Federation. The Ukrainian Air Force confirmed the downing of the Russian aircraft in cooperation with the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence.