Hybrid ultimatum for Putin

He truly believes that Putin’s economy is in dire straits and offers him his “help.” At first glance, it seems free. Almost like a straw for a drowning man… But what if he bites?

How the world has changed! On December 15, 2021, the Russian Foreign Ministry sent its ultimatums to the U.S. and NATO via diplomatic mail, and within a couple of days leaked the texts to the press. We remember that both the U.S. and NATO avoided giving an active response to those ultimatums as best they could. They rejected them in words but didn’t present their own ultimatum in return.

"And now, three years later, a new president, who is also the owner of a social media platform, is issuing his own ultimatum—veiled in both form and substance. However, we don’t even know if Trump ever read those Russian ultimatums. After all, they weren’t addressed to him."

So, we don’t know if this was done intentionally or not, but the confrontation between Russia and the “collective West” is returning to the situation of late 2021, when there was no full-scale invasion, no numerous casualties, no destroyed cities. Now, that time looks like a golden age. Trump says that for America, such golden times are ahead, but we know they are behind us.

For some reason, I feel that if the Kremlin had received an ultimatum in response to its own back then, everything that’s happening now might not have occurred. Instead, there might have been things and people that, unfortunately, are no longer here… But this is just my “what-if” thinking.

So, what now? In the Kremlin, they’ve undoubtedly already read Donald Trump’s post. There are two possible courses of action: to respond or not.

If not, they might say, “We’ve read it in the press, but there’s been no official appeal.” And remind everyone that their own ultimatums were formally issued on official Foreign Ministry letterheads. This would mean avoiding a response.

But if they decide to respond substantively, how? Trump is calling Putin to dialogue without any preconditions. Putin might answer by presenting his own demands—refer to the 2021 ultimatum. This wouldn’t just concern the war in Ukraine but also NATO’s presence in former Eastern Bloc countries and even the U.S. presence in Europe. Raising the stakes to the maximum: all sorts of “hazelnut” (nuclear threats), attacks on Trump, and so on.

Or, they could agree to dialogue without preconditions. Ultimatum for ultimatum—stalemate. Let’s save the world from World War III together! Or, through a brief rhetorical escalation, move to political de-escalation—long and fruitless negotiations. But that’s unlikely. Russia’s economy can’t withstand it, if we are to believe Trump—and not only him.

This, so to speak, is the optimistic outlook. But what about the risks? We haven’t yet heard Trump’s ultimatum for Ukraine. We’re waiting for his next post…

P.S. Trump positions himself as a mediator for striking a deal between Putin and Zelensky, who consciously don’t want one but can’t outright refuse such a mediator. I don’t know if Trump understands the entire nuance of Russians’ attitude toward fulfilling agreements, but we already do. It occurred to me that if the conversation extends beyond negotiations about Ukraine, another mediator will be needed—this time between Trump and Putin—someone who would guarantee the Russians’ adherence to agreements. And this could only be China. Actually, Trump started with China when he invited them to his inauguration and called Xi Jinping the very next day. And Xi, in turn, informed Putin about it in his own words. That would explain why the ultimatum was written in hints and sent via social media—to ensure Beijing sees it too.

Source 

About the author: Volodymyr Horbach, political analyst at the Institute of Euro-Atlantic Cooperation, expert on Ukraine’s foreign and domestic policy.

The editorial board does not always share the opinions expressed by blog authors.