Imminent defeat, vital support for Ukraine: factors that could see Russia launch nuclear strike on EU NATO members - Rand Corporation

This is the assessment made by analysts of the Rand Corporation, an American research center commissioned by the US government and the Pentagon, in the report Paths to the escalation of Russia against NATO, The Moscow Times reports. 

According to Rand, the idea that NATO's direct military intervention in the war in Ukraine is inevitable, as well as a further conflict with the entire bloc, may prompt the Kremlin to take a desperate step. In this case, the Russian leadership may dare to strike first at the countries of the Alliance.

At the same time, the arsenal of long-range non-nuclear missiles in the Russian army was significantly reduced during the military operations against Ukraine, and with it the possibility of a conventional attack on NATO.

"The Kremlin can therefore either immediately resort to tactical nuclear weapons or do so much earlier in the conflict than if its non-nuclear capabilities had not been disrupted by the war. Although the decision to use such weapons will have immediate consequences, Russian military doctrine suggests that  scenario, and the army has been prepared for it for a long time", it is noted. 

Analysts single out three main factors that may lead the Kremlin to believe that a conflict with NATO is inevitable. First of all, it can be large-scale public demonstrations with a call to punish Russia for war crimes. Even if Western governments resist the pressure, the Kremlin may have doubts that sooner or later they will capitulate.

Secondly, Russia may react to increased readiness or advanced deployment of NATO's long-range strike assets - in this case, pre-emptive strikes are possible.

Thirdly, the Russian leadership may decide that NATO is already involved in the conflict, since volunteers and instructors from the West are in Ukraine, and the supply of modern weapons systems requires technical advisers.

In addition, horizontal escalation, that is, the involvement of new parties in the conflict, can be triggered by the threat of military defeat or internal instability in Russia, in which the Kremlin can see the "hand" of the West.

"The goal of Russia's pre-emptive strikes will be to quickly persuade NATO not to conduct further military operations", Rand wrote.