If Wagner enters NATO countries, West will ponder its response – Portnikov

He stated this on Espreso. 

"We don't know what actions would be considered unacceptable by the West. Putin will try to figure it out somehow. I always talk about this. For example, the Wagner Group entered Poland or Lithuania, finding a weak spot on the border. They went into a village, killed people, and then left. What should the Alliance do in response to this? One option is to call the temporary representative of Belarus and express a protest to him. Another option is to attack the Wagner bases in Belarus. There are these options, but it's hard to predict what Poland and the NATO countries will choose," Portnikov explained.

The journalist emphasized that Putin will keep using the Wagner PMC to scare NATO countries.

"The Wagner Group may provoke NATO countries to react. But if they respond, Russia might defend Belarus, leading to a war between NATO and Russia. So, they'll have to make a choice. Putin knows this and will use it to intimidate them. If the Wagner fighters do cross NATO borders, the Alliance will face a tough decision - how to respond? Should they attack Russian military facilities or call the Russian ambassador, not the Belarusian one? And if there's a forceful reaction, it could lead to a military response," he added.

The border between Poland and Belarus

On February 23, Poland increased security on the border with Russia and Belarus.

In June, a car with Polish border guards was shot at on the Poland-Belarus border. It's still unclear who fired at the car. On June 16, Polish border guards called it an escalation of the situation.

After the leader of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, rebelled at the end of June, the Kremlin announced that mercenaries were being sent to Belarus. On June 27, the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, confirmed Yevgeny Prigozhin's arrival in the country.

At the beginning of July, Poland sent 500 more policemen to reinforce the border with Belarus. On July 8, it was reported that additional forces, including 1,000 military personnel and about 200 military vehicles, were sent to the border.

Later, on July 23, Lukashenko announced that mercenaries from Russian PMC Wagner in Belarus wanted to "go on an excursion" to Poland. On the same day, the tenth column of the Wagner Group arrived in Belarus, including at least ten vehicles.

On July 27, it was reported that Wagner private military company is recruiting people in Belarus to fight against Lithuania and Poland.

On July 29, Poland and Lithuania considered closing the border with Belarus due to Wagner PMC provocations.

On August 1, the Polish Ministry of Defense confirmed that two Belarusian helicopters violated Poland's airspace in the Białowieża area during exercises.

NATO was informed about the incident, and the Polish MFA asked for an explanation from the temporary chargé d'affaires of Belarus.

However, the Belarusian Ministry of Defense rejected the accusations, stating that Poland was using them to justify building up forces near the Belarusian border.

The Belarusian Hajun monitoring group suggested that the Belarusian helicopters might have done it accidentally while guarding President Lukashenko's residence, which is 7.5 km from the border.

The Pentagon commented on the violations, emphasizing that they take the security of NATO countries very seriously.

On August 4, the Polish Embassy in Minsk provided evidence of the airspace violation by two Belarusian military helicopters to the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.