Could Poland have shot down Belarusian helicopters violating airspace?

In a recent report, Defense Express analysts examine the violation of Polish airspace and the subsequent response by the country.

Recently, Belarusian Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters violated the Polish state border, raising questions about the response from the Polish defense forces. The situation has become complicated, as the Polish authorities initially hesitated to acknowledge the border violation, only confirming it later after photos were published. According to OSINT analysts, the penetration was approximately 3 kilometers into Polish territory.

The helicopters flew in a 10-kilometer arc within the airspace of a NATO country, taking just a few minutes in foreign airspace. Some argue that it was not a significant border violation and thus nothing to be concerned about.

Lessons from Cold War airspace incidents

During the Cold War, frequent border violations occurred on both sides, resulting in about 40 incidents involving weapons and battering rams, often kept secret by the parties involved.

Notably, NATO was actively engaged in reconnaissance on the territory of the "likely enemy," leading to a disproportion in losses, with the Alliance allegedly losing 27 aircraft and helicopters while the USSR lost 6.

However, the destruction of violators during the Cold War never escalated into war. Notably, the scale of violations differed significantly, as some intrusions covered hundreds of kilometers deliberately, while others were minor, possibly caused by pilots navigating with paper maps.

Truly significant airspace intrusions often involved the use of weapons, regardless of the aircraft's nature. For example, a civilian Boeing 747 was shot down by the USSR in 1983, resulting in 269 fatalities. Similarly, military pilots' confusion led to the shooting down of Iranian CH-47 transports in Turkmenistan in 1978 when they strayed 15-20 km into the USSR in fog.

But, “in the modern era of satellite navigation and access to precise coordinates through smartphones and specialized navigators for pilots, even a three-kilometer intrusion is a sign of a deliberate border violation,” Defense Express emphasizes.

Could Belarusian helicopters have been shot down in Poland?

The question remains: was the Polish Army prepared and capable of shooting down the offending helicopters? The official report stated that the helicopters were flying at low altitude, making detection difficult. 

However, the main concern arises from the helicopters conducting exercises near the border. With neighboring Belarus housing thousands of Wagner mercenaries, the local dictator "joking" that they want to go on an "excursion" to Rzeszow and Warsaw, the country already organizing provocations with migrants at the border, any exercises by the Belarusian armed forces should be closely monitored by the Polish military.

The Kremlin's "small steps" tactic involves gauging the enemy's response and increasing pressure if there is no retaliation. In such situations, a decisive response is necessary to communicate in the only language understood by the Kremlin - force.

If there was a genuine threat, the Polish Army would have the resources to demonstrate how any provocations end. It is unlikely that Moscow or Minsk would react to such actions, considering the history of the downing of the Russian Su-24 in Turkey and the Cold War's experiences.

“The overall situation draws parallels to the Russian X-55 cruise missile incident, where it flew 450 kilometers into Poland with a nuclear warhead, and appropriate measures were not promptly taken,” Defense Express concludes.