Black Sea "Naval battle" is inevitable

The "grain deal" is not a solution, but a pretext:

• for Russia, it's a means to use terror against Ukraine to incite a food crisis, thereby blackmailing the global community. Russian terrorists anticipate leveraging this crisis to push for the lifting of sanctions on specific financial institutions and industries. They also aim to prolong the war of attrition, enhance the political standing of pro-Kremlin entities in Western nations, and force Ukraine into negotiations or, more precisely, to surrender;

• for the international community, it's a way to exert pressure and engage "neutral" countries to delay a direct clash with Russia in the Black Sea confrontation.

• for Ukraine, it's a way to signal to Russia  (which has already been done) that two can play the sea battle game. By indicating our potential to strike the Russian navy and target their infrastructure - a legitimate military objective - we pose a significant security challenge. This, in turn, hampers Russia's economic and logistical activities in the Black Sea, even though increased insurance premiums will raise shipping costs. Ultimately, this undermines the attractiveness of such activities, particularly during the heat of a naval battle.

“Thus, we are gradually transitioning into a new phase of the war, which essentially adds another dimension to the global agenda: ensuring global security within the Black Sea region.”

I am deeply convinced that the grain deal as a political and economic pressure, or as a subject of interaction and deterrence, has almost exhausted itself, as "pacification" of a terrorist gives them more motivation to act aggressively and increase geopolitical ambitions.

Therefore, I believe that this agreement is a good reason to start planning for a new reality, which should create all possible preconditions for the implementation of security policy in the Black Sea.

Given Russia’s position and plans to occupy and eliminate Ukraine, including the occupation of our maritime territories, and our plans to uphold our statehood and complete de-occupation of our territories, this is the conclusion: the "sea battle" in the Black Sea is an inevitable reality!

Source

About the author. Oleksandr Antoniuk, political expert.

The editorial staff do not always share the opinions expressed by the blog authors.