Ukrainian drone strikes and flooding impact Russian oil refining industry, ISW reports

This is according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War.

As of mid-April 2024, Russia processed 5.22 million barrels of crude oil per day, a decrease of 10,000 barrels compared to early April.

Since January, refineries previously targeted by Ukrainian UAVs processed 1.23 million barrels of crude oil per day, marking a daily decrease of 280,000 barrels compared to pre-strike levels at the end of January. Bloomberg reported that as of April 2, Ukrainian drone attacks disabled 14% of all oil refining facilities in Russia.

Additionally, flooding in the Orenburg region forced the Orsk refinery to halt operations on April 7. However, Reuters indicated that the refinery resumed full operations on April 23.

Analysts suggest that “decreased Russian refining capacity likely forced Russia to import gasoline from Kazakhstan and Belarus in early April to address shortages and attempt to prevent domestic gasoline prices from rising, although there are no indications that constraints on Russian gasoline production are significant to international market values.”

Speculation abounds that future Ukrainian drone strikes could further cripple Russia's oil refining capacity, leading to critical limitations on Russian refining capabilities.

• On the night of April 24, Russia reported alleged drone attacks in the Voronezh, Smolensk, Lipetsk, Belgorod, and Kursk regions, resulting in damage to oil reservoirs.