Russian forces are stagnating: diplomat Bryza predicts new Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2025

He said this in an interview with Antin Borkovskyi, host of the Studio West program on Espreso TV.

"Putin perceives that halting now would pose an existential threat to him, potentially even physically. However, as previously mentioned, the Russian offensive lacks success. In essence, there is minimal progress. While they are advancing, the pace is sluggish. It has taken them approximately a year to move just about 16 kilometers beyond Bakhmut. Their inability to launch a successful offensive without additional mobilization poses a significant challeng," Bryza said.

The expert referred to the Russian dictator's internal problems, including the escape of hundreds of thousands of men during the last mobilisation: “His forces are essentially stagnant, despite some advancement. The hope is that the Ukrainian forces will persist in resisting the latest offensive, and with the arrival of additional military assistance, the dynamics will change, affording Ukraine some breathing room to push back Russian forces."

According to him, even if Russia mobilises additional forces, for example 100,000 troops, it will still face a lack of experienced commanders and the need to increase the production of artillery shells.

"My understanding is right now, they're producing only half of the 155-millimeter and 122-millimeter artillery rounds that they would need to mount an offensive. Yes, they're producing more than Ukraine. Yes, they're firing five times the number of artillery shells that Ukraine is right now, but significant escalation would demand a much greater output. Therefore, it is anticipated that Russia will struggle to make substantial territorial gains, while Ukraine's military capabilities continue to strengthen," the former US Assistant Secretary of State explained.

Bryza added that in this case, there is a possibility that a Ukrainian offensive will take place in 2025: "Looking ahead, 2025 could potentially witness a Ukrainian offensive. Crucially, if Ukraine manages to target the Kerch bridge and sever communication lines between Russia and Crimea, it could prompt a shift in Putin's approach, potentially altering his commitment to relentless civilian attacks and war crimes against the Ukrainian population."

• Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has turned into a war of attrition. He believes that 2025 will be a peaceful year for Ukraine.